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Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.

XRP Up or Down - November 15, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET

Resolved Up. 45% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

11

Down 45%

Total Value

$128.14

Combined PnL

-$542.47

Smart Money Signal

Down

5 of 11 top traders (45%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down5 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares666

Combined PnL-$536.33

Up6 traders

Total Value$128.14

Total Shares128

Combined PnL-$6.14

Down — 45%Up — 55%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BY ByteBadger92CTR	Downavg 50.7¢	$508.5	—	-$502.52	54% 4385-3706 (8091)
UN uninformedfloww<$100	Upavg 79.5¢	$73.93	$63.51	-$10.42	49% 2590-2661 (5251)
SO soswald1CTR<$100	Downavg 15.4¢	$19.7	—	-$15.52	52% 3978-3687 (7665)
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Upavg 95.7¢	$33.47	$25	-$3.55	62% 4780-2916 (7696)
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR<$100	Downavg 15.6¢	$12.55	—	-$12.55	49% 3718-3826 (7544)
HO hoodquant<$100	Upavg 98.3¢	$15.49	$15.75	+$0.27	98% 4661-98 (4759)
AN antsaslyku<$100	Upavg 77¢	$12.39	$12.97	+$0.59	36% 1528-2731 (4259)
MayorMamdani<$100	Upavg 89¢	$5.85	$6	+$0.15	53% 3129-2827 (5956)
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710<$100	Upavg 14.7¢	$2.12	$4.9	+$6.84	43% 2210-2957 (5167)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100	Downavg 15.2¢	$2.4	—	-$2.4	48% 2621-2880 (5501)
AS asdaefefCTR<$100	Downavg 65¢	$3.35	—	-$3.35	66% 4097-2069 (6166)

ByteBadger92CTR

Invested

$508.5

Value

—

PnL

-$502.52

Record

54%

4385-3706 (8091)

uninformedfloww<$100

Invested

$73.93

Value

$63.51

PnL

-$10.42

Record

49%

2590-2661 (5251)

soswald1CTR<$100

Invested

$19.7

Value

—

PnL

-$15.52

Record

52%

3978-3687 (7665)

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Invested

$33.47

Value

$25

PnL

-$3.55

Record

62%

4780-2916 (7696)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR<$100

Invested

$12.55

Value

—

PnL

-$12.55

Record

49%

3718-3826 (7544)

Invested

$15.49

Value

$15.75

PnL

+$0.27

Record

98%

4661-98 (4759)

antsaslyku<$100

Invested

$12.39

Value

$12.97

PnL

+$0.59

Record

36%

1528-2731 (4259)

MayorMamdani<$100

Invested

$5.85

Value

$6

PnL

+$0.15

Record

53%

3129-2827 (5956)

0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710<$100

Invested

$2.12

Value

$4.9

PnL

+$6.84

Record

43%

2210-2957 (5167)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100

Invested

$2.4

Value

—

PnL

-$2.4

Record

48%

2621-2880 (5501)

asdaefefCTR<$100

Invested

$3.35

Value

—

PnL

-$3.35

Record

66%

4097-2069 (6166)

Smart Money Signal

Down

5 of 11 top traders (45%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

Market Info

Condition ID

0x13bb27c3...4f52b1

Slug

xrp-updown-5m-1794780900

Traders in this Market

ByteBadger92

Down — $0

uninformedfloww

Up — $63.51

soswald1

Down — $0

drfc4eybh7i8

Up — $25

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Down — $0

hoodquant

Up — $15.75

antsaslyku

Up — $12.97

MayorMamdani

Up — $6

0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710

Up — $4.9

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025

Down — $0

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