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UpDown
ohioismCTR<$100DownUp
MayorMamdani<$100Up
Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.
XRP Up or Down - November 15, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET
Resolved Up. 50% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.
RESOLVED
💀
Lost
Consensus Traders
4
Down 50%
1 arb excluded
Total Value
$540.39
Combined PnL
-$499.93
Smart Money Signal
Down
2 of 4 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Market Activity
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Outcome Probabilities
Up100%
Down0%
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Down2 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares525
Combined PnL-$505.4
Up2 traders
Total Value$17
Total Shares17
Combined PnL+$5.47
Down — 50%Up — 50%
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SO soswald1ARB<$100 | Upavg 50¢ | $550 | $523.39 | +$5.97 | 52% 3978-3687 (7665) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 50¢ | $261.7 | $523.39 | +$261.38 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 50¢ | $246.77 | — | -$255.41 | |
BY ByteBadger92CTR | Downavg 50.4¢ | $511.99 | — | -$501.55 | 54% 4385-3706 (8091) |
ohioismCTR<$100 | Downavg 25.7¢ | $3.85 | — | -$3.85 | 47% 2520-2793 (5313) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Upavg 59¢ | $6.49 | $11 | +$4.51 | 62% 4780-2916 (7696) |
MayorMamdani<$100 | Upavg 84¢ | $5.04 | $6 | +$0.96 | 53% 3129-2827 (5956) |
SO
soswald1ARB<$100Invested
$550
Value
$523.39
PnL
+$5.97
Record
52%
3978-3687 (7665)
Both legs:
Up$261.750¢+$261.38
Down$246.7750¢-$255.41
BY
ByteBadger92CTRInvested
$511.99
Value
—
PnL
-$501.55
Record
54%
4385-3706 (8091)
ohioismCTR<$100Invested
$3.85
Value
—
PnL
-$3.85
Record
47%
2520-2793 (5313)
DR
drfc4eybh7i8<$100Invested
$6.49
Value
$11
PnL
+$4.51
Record
62%
4780-2916 (7696)
MayorMamdani<$100Invested
$5.04
Value
$6
PnL
+$0.96
Record
53%
3129-2827 (5956)
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Market Info
Condition ID
0xc7df9ee0...ef269c
Slug
xrp-updown-5m-1794780300