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Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.

XRP Up or Down - November 15, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET

Resolved Up. 60% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

10

Down 56%

Total Value

$37.74

Combined PnL

-$549.96

Smart Money Signal

Down

6 of 10 top traders (60%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down6 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares590

Combined PnL-$561.42

Up4 traders

Total Value$37.74

Total Shares38

Combined PnL+$11.46

Down — 60%Up — 40%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BY ByteBadger92CTR	Downavg 50.3¢	$512.68	—	-$503.24	54% 4385-3706 (8091)
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100	Downavg 76.6¢	$29.59	—	-$29.59	36% 1528-2731 (4259)
SO soswald1CTR<$100	Downavg 34.5¢	$10.99	—	-$10.99	52% 3978-3687 (7665)
DV dvasdkasodk<$100	Upavg 99¢	$18.81	$19	+$0.19	50% 2938-2929 (5867)
UN uninformedflowwCTR<$100	Downavg 86¢	$17.2	—	-$17.2	49% 2590-2661 (5251)
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Upavg 59.5¢	$5.95	$10	+$4.05	62% 4780-2916 (7696)
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710<$100	Upavg 13¢	$0.78	$6	+$5.22	43% 2210-2957 (5167)
G-Penis-Monster<$100	Upavg 27¢	$0.74	$2.74	+$2	44% 2484-3215 (5699)
MayorMamdaniCTR<$100	Downavg 71¢	$0.25	—	-$0.25	53% 3129-2827 (5956)
0X 0x50f7CTR<$100	Downavg 3¢	$0.15	—	-$0.15	54% 1662-1428 (3090)

ByteBadger92CTR

Invested

$512.68

Value

—

PnL

-$503.24

Record

54%

4385-3706 (8091)

antsaslykuCTR<$100

Invested

$29.59

Value

—

PnL

-$29.59

Record

36%

1528-2731 (4259)

soswald1CTR<$100

Invested

$10.99

Value

—

PnL

-$10.99

Record

52%

3978-3687 (7665)

dvasdkasodk<$100

Invested

$18.81

Value

$19

PnL

+$0.19

Record

50%

2938-2929 (5867)

uninformedflowwCTR<$100

Invested

$17.2

Value

—

PnL

-$17.2

Record

49%

2590-2661 (5251)

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Invested

$5.95

Value

$10

PnL

+$4.05

Record

62%

4780-2916 (7696)

0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710<$100

Invested

$0.78

Value

$6

PnL

+$5.22

Record

43%

2210-2957 (5167)

G-Penis-Monster<$100

Invested

$0.74

Value

$2.74

PnL

+$2

Record

44%

2484-3215 (5699)

MayorMamdaniCTR<$100

Invested

$0.25

Value

—

PnL

-$0.25

Record

53%

3129-2827 (5956)

Invested

$0.15

Value

—

PnL

-$0.15

Record

54%

1662-1428 (3090)

Smart Money Signal

Down

6 of 10 top traders (60%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x6d44c978...897fb7

Slug

xrp-updown-5m-1794780000

Traders in this Market

ByteBadger92

Down — $0

antsaslyku

Down — $0

soswald1

Down — $0

dvasdkasodk

Up — $19

uninformedfloww

Down — $0

drfc4eybh7i8

Up — $10

0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710

Up — $6

G-Penis-Monster

Up — $2.74

MayorMamdani

Down — $0

0x50f7

Down — $0

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