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Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.

XRP Up or Down - November 15, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET

Resolved Down. 44% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

9

Up 44%

Total Value

$111.48

Combined PnL

-$474.82

Smart Money Signal

Up

4 of 9 top traders (44%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up4 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares531

Combined PnL-$500.63

Down5 traders

Total Value$111.48

Total Shares111

Combined PnL+$25.81

Up — 44%Down — 56%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BY ByteBadger92CTR	Upavg 50¢	$500	—	-$494.25	54% 4385-3706 (8091)
SO soswald1<$100	Downavg 66.3¢	$39.85	$60.09	+$20.24	52% 3978-3687 (7665)
UN uninformedfloww<$100	Downavg 79.6¢	$22.75	$28.57	+$5.82	49% 2590-2661 (5251)
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Downavg 87.5¢	$17.01	$16.05	-$0.96	62% 4780-2916 (7696)
AS asidjasiodja<$100	Downavg 99¢	$4.95	$5	+$0.05	65% 2910-1583 (4493)
ohioismCTR<$100	Upavg 20¢	$1	—	-$1	47% 2520-2793 (5313)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100	Downavg 63¢	$1.11	$1.76	+$0.65	48% 2593-2832 (5425)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100	Upavg 21.5¢	$4.3	—	-$4.3	48% 2621-2880 (5501)
G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100	Upavg 18¢	$1.08	—	-$1.08	44% 2484-3215 (5699)

ByteBadger92CTR

Invested

$500

Value

—

PnL

-$494.25

Record

54%

4385-3706 (8091)

Invested

$39.85

Value

$60.09

PnL

+$20.24

Record

52%

3978-3687 (7665)

uninformedfloww<$100

Invested

$22.75

Value

$28.57

PnL

+$5.82

Record

49%

2590-2661 (5251)

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Invested

$17.01

Value

$16.05

PnL

-$0.96

Record

62%

4780-2916 (7696)

asidjasiodja<$100

Invested

$4.95

Value

$5

PnL

+$0.05

Record

65%

2910-1583 (4493)

ohioismCTR<$100

Invested

$1

Value

—

PnL

-$1

Record

47%

2520-2793 (5313)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100

Invested

$1.11

Value

$1.76

PnL

+$0.65

Record

48%

2593-2832 (5425)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100

Invested

$4.3

Value

—

PnL

-$4.3

Record

48%

2621-2880 (5501)

G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100

Invested

$1.08

Value

—

PnL

-$1.08

Record

44%

2484-3215 (5699)

Smart Money Signal

Up

4 of 9 top traders (44%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0xb0155ee8...9216ae

Slug

xrp-updown-5m-1794779700

Traders in this Market

ByteBadger92

Up — $0

soswald1

Down — $60.09

uninformedfloww

Down — $28.57

drfc4eybh7i8

Down — $16.05

asidjasiodja

Down — $5

ohioism

Up — $0

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530

Down — $1.76

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025

Up — $0

G-Penis-Monster

Up — $0

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