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Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.

XRP Up or Down - November 15, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET

Resolved Up. 55% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

11

Down 55%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$659.94

Combined PnL

-$134.32

Smart Money Signal

Down

6 of 11 top traders (55%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down6 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares209

Combined PnL-$140.33

Up5 traders

Total Value$80.76

Total Shares81

Combined PnL+$6.01

Down — 55%Up — 45%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100	Downavg 48.9¢	$528.67	$489.23	-$0.26	54% 4385-3706 (8091)
└ Up leg	Upavg 50.2¢	$245.76	$489.23	+$249.88
└ Down leg	Downavg 48.9¢	$250.06	—	-$250.13
SO soswald1ARB<$100	Upavg 65.5¢	$78.42	$89.95	+$11.53	52% 3978-3687 (7665)
└ Up leg	Upavg 65.5¢	$58.93	$89.95	+$31.03
└ Down leg	Downavg 44.4¢	$19.5	—	-$19.5
AN antsaslykuCTR	Downavg 46.4¢	$106.68	—	-$101.48	36% 1528-2731 (4259)
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Upavg 86¢	$30.26	$29	-$1.26	62% 4780-2916 (7696)
cryingbabydicer87<$100	Upavg 92.7¢	$18.7	$20.16	+$1.46	50% 1799-1825 (3624)
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100	Downavg 48¢	$17.65	—	-$17.65	50% 2938-2929 (5867)
AS asdaefefCTR<$100	Downavg 48.2¢	$12.05	—	-$12.05	66% 4097-2069 (6166)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100	Upavg 39¢	$3.74	$9.58	+$5.84	48% 2593-2832 (5425)
G-Penis-Monster<$100	Upavg 48.7¢	$7.3	$15	+$7.7	44% 2484-3215 (5699)
ohioismCTR<$100	Downavg 22¢	$3.3	—	-$3.3	47% 2520-2793 (5313)
UN uninformedfloww<$100	Upavg 90.6¢	$29.46	$7.01	-$7.74	49% 2590-2661 (5251)
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR<$100	Downavg 31¢	$1.86	—	-$1.86	43% 2210-2957 (5167)
AS asidjasiodjaCTR<$100	Downavg 49¢	$3.99	—	-$3.99	65% 2910-1583 (4493)

ByteBadger92ARB<$100

Invested

$528.67

Value

$489.23

PnL

-$0.26

Record

54%

4385-3706 (8091)

Both legs:

Up$245.7650.2¢+$249.88

Down$250.0648.9¢-$250.13

soswald1ARB<$100

Invested

$78.42

Value

$89.95

PnL

+$11.53

Record

52%

3978-3687 (7665)

Both legs:

Up$58.9365.5¢+$31.03

Down$19.544.4¢-$19.5

Invested

$106.68

Value

—

PnL

-$101.48

Record

36%

1528-2731 (4259)

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Invested

$30.26

Value

$29

PnL

-$1.26

Record

62%

4780-2916 (7696)

cryingbabydicer87<$100

Invested

$18.7

Value

$20.16

PnL

+$1.46

Record

50%

1799-1825 (3624)

dvasdkasodkCTR<$100

Invested

$17.65

Value

—

PnL

-$17.65

Record

50%

2938-2929 (5867)

asdaefefCTR<$100

Invested

$12.05

Value

—

PnL

-$12.05

Record

66%

4097-2069 (6166)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100

Invested

$3.74

Value

$9.58

PnL

+$5.84

Record

48%

2593-2832 (5425)

G-Penis-Monster<$100

Invested

$7.3

Value

$15

PnL

+$7.7

Record

44%

2484-3215 (5699)

ohioismCTR<$100

Invested

$3.3

Value

—

PnL

-$3.3

Record

47%

2520-2793 (5313)

uninformedfloww<$100

Invested

$29.46

Value

$7.01

PnL

-$7.74

Record

49%

2590-2661 (5251)

0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR<$100

Invested

$1.86

Value

—

PnL

-$1.86

Record

43%

2210-2957 (5167)

asidjasiodjaCTR<$100

Invested

$3.99

Value

—

PnL

-$3.99

Record

65%

2910-1583 (4493)

Smart Money Signal

Down

6 of 11 top traders (55%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x790b19db...2e5df1

Slug

xrp-updown-5m-1794779400

Traders in this Market

ByteBadger92

Arbitrage — excluded

soswald1

Arbitrage — excluded

antsaslyku

Down — $0

drfc4eybh7i8

Up — $29

cryingbabydicer87

Up — $20.16

dvasdkasodk

Down — $0

asdaefef

Down — $0

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530

Up — $9.58

G-Penis-Monster

Up — $15

ohioism

Down — $0

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