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Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.
XRP Up or Down - November 15, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET
Resolved Up. 43% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.
RESOLVED
💀
Lost
Consensus Traders
7
Down 43%
Total Value
$85.84
Combined PnL
$-1.0K
Smart Money Signal
Down
3 of 7 top traders (43%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Market Activity
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Outcome Probabilities
Up100%
Down0%
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Down3 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares1,046
Combined PnL$-1.0K
Up4 traders
Total Value$85.84
Total Shares86
Combined PnL+$10.8
Down — 43%Up — 57%
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SO soswald1CTR | Downavg 50¢ | $550 | — | -$545.61 | 52% 3952-3665 (7617) |
BY ByteBadger92CTR | Downavg 50¢ | $500 | — | -$478.9 | 54% 4350-3681 (8031) |
UN uninformedfloww<$100 | Upavg 81.7¢ | $45.64 | $55.84 | +$10.2 | 49% 2572-2644 (5216) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Upavg 97.7¢ | $16.4 | $15 | -$1.4 | 62% 4748-2897 (7645) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100 | Upavg 81¢ | $8.1 | $10 | +$1.9 | 48% 2582-2816 (5398) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Upavg 98¢ | $4.9 | $5 | +$0.1 | 66% 4070-2058 (6128) |
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR<$100 | Downavg 21¢ | $1.26 | — | -$1.26 | 43% 2188-2930 (5118) |
SO
soswald1CTRInvested
$550
Value
—
PnL
-$545.61
Record
52%
3952-3665 (7617)
BY
ByteBadger92CTRInvested
$500
Value
—
PnL
-$478.9
Record
54%
4350-3681 (8031)
UN
uninformedfloww<$100Invested
$45.64
Value
$55.84
PnL
+$10.2
Record
49%
2572-2644 (5216)
DR
drfc4eybh7i8<$100Invested
$16.4
Value
$15
PnL
-$1.4
Record
62%
4748-2897 (7645)
0X
0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100Invested
$8.1
Value
$10
PnL
+$1.9
Record
48%
2582-2816 (5398)
AS
asdaefef<$100Invested
$4.9
Value
$5
PnL
+$0.1
Record
66%
4070-2058 (6128)
0X
0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR<$100Invested
$1.26
Value
—
PnL
-$1.26
Record
43%
2188-2930 (5118)
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Market Info
Condition ID
0xbc0df486...ea5e6a
Slug
xrp-updown-5m-1794779100