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DownDown
MayorMamdani<$100UpUpDownDownDown
Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.
XRP Up or Down - November 15, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET
Resolved Up. 71% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.
RESOLVED
💀
Lost
Consensus Traders
7
Down 71%
Total Value
$26
Combined PnL
$-1.0K
Smart Money Signal
Down
5 of 7 top traders (71%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Market Activity
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Outcome Probabilities
Up100%
Down0%
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Down5 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares1,154
Combined PnL$-1.0K
Up2 traders
Total Value$26
Total Shares26
Combined PnL+$2.12
Down — 71%Up — 29%
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SO soswald1CTR | Downavg 50¢ | $550 | — | -$517.86 | 52% 3978-3687 (7665) |
BY ByteBadger92CTR | Downavg 50¢ | $500 | — | -$497.06 | 54% 4385-3706 (8091) |
MayorMamdani<$100 | Upavg 98¢ | $15.68 | $16 | +$0.32 | 53% 3129-2827 (5956) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Upavg 82¢ | $8.2 | $10 | +$1.8 | 62% 4780-2916 (7696) |
0X 0x50f7CTR<$100 | Downavg 2.4¢ | $2.34 | — | -$2.34 | 54% 1662-1428 (3090) |
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100 | Downavg 8.6¢ | $1.21 | — | -$1.21 | 50% 2938-2929 (5867) |
UN uninformedflowwCTR<$100 | Downavg 28¢ | $0.99 | — | -$0.99 | 49% 2590-2661 (5251) |
SO
soswald1CTRInvested
$550
Value
—
PnL
-$517.86
Record
52%
3978-3687 (7665)
BY
ByteBadger92CTRInvested
$500
Value
—
PnL
-$497.06
Record
54%
4385-3706 (8091)
MayorMamdani<$100Invested
$15.68
Value
$16
PnL
+$0.32
Record
53%
3129-2827 (5956)
DR
drfc4eybh7i8<$100Invested
$8.2
Value
$10
PnL
+$1.8
Record
62%
4780-2916 (7696)
0X
0x50f7CTR<$100Invested
$2.34
Value
—
PnL
-$2.34
Record
54%
1662-1428 (3090)
DV
dvasdkasodkCTR<$100Invested
$1.21
Value
—
PnL
-$1.21
Record
50%
2938-2929 (5867)
UN
uninformedflowwCTR<$100Invested
$0.99
Value
—
PnL
-$0.99
Record
49%
2590-2661 (5251)
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Market Info
Condition ID
0x6d232a69...392430
Slug
xrp-updown-5m-1794778800