Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.
XRP Up or Down - November 15, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET
Resolved Up. 57% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
7
Down 57%
1 arb excluded
$572.99
-$500.44
Smart Money Signal
4 of 7 top traders (57%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SO soswald1ARB<$100 | Downavg 50¢ | $550 | $523 | -$5.24 | 52% 3952-3665 (7617) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 50¢ | $269.5 | — | -$272.24 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 50¢ | $261.5 | $523 | +$267 | |
BY ByteBadger92CTR | Downavg 49.6¢ | $503.75 | — | -$494.09 | 54% 4350-3681 (8031) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Upavg 97.7¢ | $37.01 | $26 | -$1 | 62% 4748-2897 (7645) |
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100 | Downavg 9.7¢ | $1.95 | — | -$1.95 | 50% 2915-2911 (5826) |
AS asdaefefCTR<$100 | Downavg 6.9¢ | $1.05 | — | -$1.05 | 66% 4070-2058 (6128) |
 MayorMamdani<$100 | Upavg 97¢ | $13.58 | $14 | +$0.42 | 53% 3113-2811 (5924) |
UN uninformedflowwCTR<$100 | Downavg 22¢ | $2.86 | — | -$2.86 | 49% 2572-2644 (5216) |
HO hoodquant<$100 | Upavg 99¢ | $9.89 | $9.99 | +$0.1 | 98% 4630-97 (4727) |
Invested
$550
Value
$523
PnL
-$5.24
Record
52%
3952-3665 (7617)
Both legs:
Invested
$503.75
Value
—
PnL
-$494.09
Record
54%
4350-3681 (8031)
Invested
$37.01
Value
$26
PnL
-$1
Record
62%
4748-2897 (7645)
Invested
$1.95
Value
—
PnL
-$1.95
Record
50%
2915-2911 (5826)
Invested
$1.05
Value
—
PnL
-$1.05
Record
66%
4070-2058 (6128)
MayorMamdani<$100Invested
$13.58
Value
$14
PnL
+$0.42
Record
53%
3113-2811 (5924)
Invested
$2.86
Value
—
PnL
-$2.86
Record
49%
2572-2644 (5216)
Invested
$9.89
Value
$9.99
PnL
+$0.1
Record
98%
4630-97 (4727)