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Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

XRP Up or Down - November 15, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET

Resolved Down. 70% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

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RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

10

Down 70%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$645.79

Combined PnL

$23.92

Smart Money Signal

Down

7 of 10 top traders (70%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down7 traders

Total Value$150.89

Total Shares151

Combined PnL+$33.87

Up3 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares102

Combined PnL-$9.95

Down — 70%Up — 30%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100	Upavg 50¢	$500	$494.9	-$0.38	54% 4350-3681 (8031)
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$250	—	-$250
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$247.45	$494.9	+$249.62
UN uninformedfloww<$100	Downavg 68.2¢	$57.01	$83.28	+$26.27	49% 2572-2644 (5216)
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609<$100	Downavg 84.1¢	$22.32	$19	-$3.32	49% 3684-3801 (7485)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100	Downavg 71¢	$17.75	$25	+$7.25	48% 2582-2816 (5398)
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Downavg 80.7¢	$8.45	$10.47	+$2.02	62% 4748-2897 (7645)
DV dvasdkasodk<$100	Downavg 97¢	$4.9	$5.05	+$0.15	50% 2915-2911 (5826)
0X 0x50f7<$100	Downavg 99.9¢	$3.09	$3.09	+$0	54% 1650-1425 (3075)
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR<$100	Upavg 28.2¢	$1.69	—	-$1.69	43% 2188-2930 (5118)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100	Downavg 70¢	$3.5	$5	+$1.5	48% 2606-2865 (5471)
G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100	Upavg 2¢	$0.71	—	-$0.71	44% 2472-3195 (5667)
SO soswald1CTR<$100	Upavg 12.6¢	$7.55	—	-$7.55	52% 3952-3665 (7617)

ByteBadger92ARB<$100

Invested

$500

Value

$494.9

PnL

-$0.38

Record

54%

4350-3681 (8031)

Both legs:

Up$25050¢-$250

Down$247.4550¢+$249.62

uninformedfloww<$100

Invested

$57.01

Value

$83.28

PnL

+$26.27

Record

49%

2572-2644 (5216)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609<$100

Invested

$22.32

Value

$19

PnL

-$3.32

Record

49%

3684-3801 (7485)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100

Invested

$17.75

Value

$25

PnL

+$7.25

Record

48%

2582-2816 (5398)

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Invested

$8.45

Value

$10.47

PnL

+$2.02

Record

62%

4748-2897 (7645)

dvasdkasodk<$100

Invested

$4.9

Value

$5.05

PnL

+$0.15

Record

50%

2915-2911 (5826)

Invested

$3.09

Value

$3.09

PnL

+$0

Record

54%

1650-1425 (3075)

0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR<$100

Invested

$1.69

Value

—

PnL

-$1.69

Record

43%

2188-2930 (5118)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100

Invested

$3.5

Value

$5

PnL

+$1.5

Record

48%

2606-2865 (5471)

G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100

Invested

$0.71

Value

—

PnL

-$0.71

Record

44%

2472-3195 (5667)

soswald1CTR<$100

Invested

$7.55

Value

—

PnL

-$7.55

Record

52%

3952-3665 (7617)

Smart Money Signal

Down

7 of 10 top traders (70%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0xd5cc5485...59a22a

Slug

xrp-updown-5m-1794777300

Traders in this Market

ByteBadger92

Arbitrage — excluded

uninformedfloww

Down — $83.28

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Down — $19

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530

Down — $25

drfc4eybh7i8

Down — $10.47

dvasdkasodk

Down — $5.05

0x50f7

Down — $3.09

0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710

Up — $0

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025

Down — $5

G-Penis-Monster

Up — $0

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