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Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.

XRP Up or Down - November 15, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET

Resolved Down. 63% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.

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RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

8

Up 71%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$697.84

Combined PnL

-$482.28

Smart Money Signal

Up

5 of 8 top traders (63%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up5 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares541

Combined PnL-$505.51

Down3 traders

Total Value$147.84

Total Shares148

Combined PnL+$23.23

Up — 63%Down — 37%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SO soswald1ARB<$100	Downavg 50¢	$550	$550	+$10.55	52% 3952-3665 (7617)
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$275	$550	+$275
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$261.61	—	-$264.45
BY ByteBadger92CTR	Upavg 50¢	$500.07	—	-$490.32	54% 4350-3681 (8031)
HO hoodquant	Downavg 99¢	$99	$100	+$1	98% 4630-97 (4727)
UN uninformedfloww<$100	Downavg 55.5¢	$26.56	$47.84	+$21.28	49% 2572-2644 (5216)
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR<$100	Upavg 60¢	$12.26	—	-$12.26	49% 3684-3801 (7485)
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100	Upavg 10.8¢	$1.54	—	-$1.54	50% 2915-2911 (5826)
AS asdaefefCTR<$100	Upavg 10¢	$1	—	-$1	66% 4070-2058 (6128)
MayorMamdaniCTR<$100	Upavg 9¢	$0.4	—	-$0.4	53% 3113-2811 (5924)
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Downavg 79¢	$3.95	—	+$0.95	62% 4748-2897 (7645)

soswald1ARB<$100

Invested

$550

Value

$550

PnL

+$10.55

Record

52%

3952-3665 (7617)

Both legs:

Down$27550¢+$275

Up$261.6150¢-$264.45

ByteBadger92CTR

Invested

$500.07

Value

—

PnL

-$490.32

Record

54%

4350-3681 (8031)

Invested

$99

Value

$100

PnL

+$1

Record

98%

4630-97 (4727)

uninformedfloww<$100

Invested

$26.56

Value

$47.84

PnL

+$21.28

Record

49%

2572-2644 (5216)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR<$100

Invested

$12.26

Value

—

PnL

-$12.26

Record

49%

3684-3801 (7485)

dvasdkasodkCTR<$100

Invested

$1.54

Value

—

PnL

-$1.54

Record

50%

2915-2911 (5826)

asdaefefCTR<$100

Invested

$1

Value

—

PnL

-$1

Record

66%

4070-2058 (6128)

MayorMamdaniCTR<$100

Invested

$0.4

Value

—

PnL

-$0.4

Record

53%

3113-2811 (5924)

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Invested

$3.95

Value

—

PnL

+$0.95

Record

62%

4748-2897 (7645)

Smart Money Signal

Up

5 of 8 top traders (63%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0xa9f80cb9...20cc33

Slug

xrp-updown-5m-1794777000

Traders in this Market

soswald1

Arbitrage — excluded

ByteBadger92

Up — $0

hoodquant

Down — $100

uninformedfloww

Down — $47.84

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Up — $0

dvasdkasodk

Up — $0

asdaefef

Up — $0

MayorMamdani

Up — $0

drfc4eybh7i8

Down — $0

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