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DownUpUpDown
MayorMamdani<$100UpDown
Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.
XRP Up or Down - November 15, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET
Resolved Up. 50% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.
RESOLVED
💀
Lost
Consensus Traders
6
Down 50%
Total Value
$520.97
Combined PnL
-$545.13
Smart Money Signal
Down
3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Market Activity
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Outcome Probabilities
Up100%
Down0%
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Down3 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares581
Combined PnL-$547.55
Up3 traders
Total Value$520.97
Total Shares521
Combined PnL+$2.43
Down — 50%Up — 50%
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SO soswald1CTR | Downavg 50¢ | $550 | — | -$536.4 | 52% 3952-3665 (7617) |
BY ByteBadger92 | Upavg 50¢ | $500 | $498.97 | +$2.27 | 54% 4350-3681 (8031) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Upavg 89.6¢ | $20.47 | $15 | -$0.61 | 62% 4748-2897 (7645) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR<$100 | Downavg 24¢ | $11.03 | — | -$11.03 | 49% 3684-3801 (7485) |
MayorMamdani<$100 | Upavg 89¢ | $6.23 | $7 | +$0.77 | 53% 3113-2811 (5924) |
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR<$100 | Downavg 2¢ | $0.12 | — | -$0.12 | 43% 2188-2930 (5118) |
SO
soswald1CTRInvested
$550
Value
—
PnL
-$536.4
Record
52%
3952-3665 (7617)
BY
ByteBadger92Invested
$500
Value
$498.97
PnL
+$2.27
Record
54%
4350-3681 (8031)
DR
drfc4eybh7i8<$100Invested
$20.47
Value
$15
PnL
-$0.61
Record
62%
4748-2897 (7645)
0X
0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR<$100Invested
$11.03
Value
—
PnL
-$11.03
Record
49%
3684-3801 (7485)
MayorMamdani<$100Invested
$6.23
Value
$7
PnL
+$0.77
Record
53%
3113-2811 (5924)
0X
0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR<$100Invested
$0.12
Value
—
PnL
-$0.12
Record
43%
2188-2930 (5118)
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Market Info
Condition ID
0xe246fc81...f94c2d
Slug
xrp-updown-5m-1794775800