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Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.

XRP Up or Down - November 15, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET

Resolved Down. 43% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.

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RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

7

Up 43%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$537

Combined PnL

-$541.73

Smart Money Signal

Up

3 of 7 top traders (43%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up3 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares560

Combined PnL-$541.13

Down4 traders

Total Value$32

Total Shares32

Combined PnL-$0.6

Up — 43%Down — 57%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SO soswald1CTR	Upavg 50¢	$550	—	-$540.3	52% 3952-3665 (7617)
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100	Downavg 50¢	$505.13	$505	+$9.67	54% 4350-3681 (8031)
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$252.6	$505	+$254.8
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$245.03	—	-$245.13
MayorMamdani<$100	Downavg 97¢	$13.58	$14	+$0.42	53% 3113-2811 (5924)
AS asdaefef<$100	Downavg 98¢	$10.92	$10	-$0.92	66% 4070-2058 (6128)
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609<$100	Downavg 93¢	$5.58	$6	+$0.42	49% 3684-3801 (7485)
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR<$100	Upavg 7.5¢	$0.78	—	-$0.78	43% 2188-2930 (5118)
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Downavg 96.8¢	$25.32	$2	-$0.52	62% 4748-2897 (7645)
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100	Upavg 1¢	$0.05	—	-$0.05	36% 1518-2714 (4232)

Invested

$550

Value

—

PnL

-$540.3

Record

52%

3952-3665 (7617)

ByteBadger92ARB<$100

Invested

$505.13

Value

$505

PnL

+$9.67

Record

54%

4350-3681 (8031)

Both legs:

Down$252.650¢+$254.8

Up$245.0350¢-$245.13

MayorMamdani<$100

Invested

$13.58

Value

$14

PnL

+$0.42

Record

53%

3113-2811 (5924)

Invested

$10.92

Value

$10

PnL

-$0.92

Record

66%

4070-2058 (6128)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609<$100

Invested

$5.58

Value

$6

PnL

+$0.42

Record

49%

3684-3801 (7485)

0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR<$100

Invested

$0.78

Value

—

PnL

-$0.78

Record

43%

2188-2930 (5118)

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Invested

$25.32

Value

$2

PnL

-$0.52

Record

62%

4748-2897 (7645)

antsaslykuCTR<$100

Invested

$0.05

Value

—

PnL

-$0.05

Record

36%

1518-2714 (4232)

Smart Money Signal

Up

3 of 7 top traders (43%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0xd58118e6...f78724

Slug

xrp-updown-5m-1794775500

Traders in this Market

soswald1

Up — $0

ByteBadger92

Arbitrage — excluded

MayorMamdani

Down — $14

asdaefef

Down — $10

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Down — $6

0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710

Up — $0

drfc4eybh7i8

Down — $2

antsaslyku

Up — $0

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