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DownDownUpUpUp
Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.
XRP Up or Down - November 15, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET
Resolved Up. 25% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.
RESOLVED
💀
Lost
Consensus Traders
4
Down 25%
1 arb excluded
Total Value
$540.34
Combined PnL
-$536.59
Smart Money Signal
Down
1 of 4 top traders (25%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Market Activity
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Outcome Probabilities
Up100%
Down0%
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Down1 trader
Total Value$0
Total Shares540
Combined PnL-$530.35
Up3 traders
Total Value$40.34
Total Shares40
Combined PnL-$6.24
Down — 25%Up — 75%
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SO soswald1CTR | Downavg 50¢ | $550 | — | -$530.35 | 52% 3909-3625 (7534) |
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100 | Downavg 50¢ | $509.59 | $500 | -$0.9 | 54% 4282-3627 (7909) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 50¢ | $250.2 | — | -$251.5 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 49.9¢ | $249.4 | $500 | +$250.6 | |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Upavg 94¢ | $31.67 | $22.15 | -$8.22 | 62% 4692-2855 (7547) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Upavg 81.7¢ | $9.96 | $12.18 | +$2.22 | 66% 4016-2029 (6045) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609<$100 | Upavg 60¢ | $6.25 | $6 | -$0.25 | 49% 3651-3756 (7407) |
SO
soswald1CTRInvested
$550
Value
—
PnL
-$530.35
Record
52%
3909-3625 (7534)
BY
ByteBadger92ARB<$100Invested
$509.59
Value
$500
PnL
-$0.9
Record
54%
4282-3627 (7909)
Both legs:
Down$250.250¢-$251.5
Up$249.449.9¢+$250.6
DR
drfc4eybh7i8<$100Invested
$31.67
Value
$22.15
PnL
-$8.22
Record
62%
4692-2855 (7547)
AS
asdaefef<$100Invested
$9.96
Value
$12.18
PnL
+$2.22
Record
66%
4016-2029 (6045)
0X
0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609<$100Invested
$6.25
Value
$6
PnL
-$0.25
Record
49%
3651-3756 (7407)
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Market Info
Condition ID
0xacff4781...afb514
Slug
xrp-updown-5m-1794770700