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Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.

XRP Up or Down - November 15, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET

Resolved Up. 25% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.

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RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

8

Down 25%

Total Value

$151.37

Combined PnL

-$476.91

Smart Money Signal

Down

2 of 8 top traders (25%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down2 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares509

Combined PnL-$490.26

Up6 traders

Total Value$151.37

Total Shares151

Combined PnL+$13.34

Down — 25%Up — 75%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BY ByteBadger92CTR	Downavg 49.2¢	$505.16	—	-$488.81	54% 4282-3627 (7909)
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609<$100	Upavg 80.8¢	$25.86	$28.38	+$2.51	49% 3651-3756 (7407)
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710<$100	Upavg 94.4¢	$50.94	$53.94	+$3	42% 2132-2886 (5018)
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Upavg 96.8¢	$26.73	$26	-$0.55	62% 4692-2855 (7547)
SO soswald1<$100	Upavg 69.5¢	$14.98	$20	+$5.02	52% 3909-3625 (7534)
UN uninformedfloww<$100	Upavg 83¢	$14.94	$18	+$3.06	49% 2537-2616 (5153)
DV dvasdkasodk<$100	Upavg 94¢	$4.75	$5.05	+$0.3	50% 2877-2870 (5747)
AS asdaefefCTR<$100	Downavg 22.1¢	$1.45	—	-$1.45	66% 4016-2029 (6045)

ByteBadger92CTR

Invested

$505.16

Value

—

PnL

-$488.81

Record

54%

4282-3627 (7909)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609<$100

Invested

$25.86

Value

$28.38

PnL

+$2.51

Record

49%

3651-3756 (7407)

0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710<$100

Invested

$50.94

Value

$53.94

PnL

+$3

Record

42%

2132-2886 (5018)

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Invested

$26.73

Value

$26

PnL

-$0.55

Record

62%

4692-2855 (7547)

Invested

$14.98

Value

$20

PnL

+$5.02

Record

52%

3909-3625 (7534)

uninformedfloww<$100

Invested

$14.94

Value

$18

PnL

+$3.06

Record

49%

2537-2616 (5153)

dvasdkasodk<$100

Invested

$4.75

Value

$5.05

PnL

+$0.3

Record

50%

2877-2870 (5747)

asdaefefCTR<$100

Invested

$1.45

Value

—

PnL

-$1.45

Record

66%

4016-2029 (6045)

Smart Money Signal

Down

2 of 8 top traders (25%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0xba75a0b4...3d36a9

Slug

xrp-updown-5m-1794769800

Traders in this Market

ByteBadger92

Down — $0

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Up — $28.38

0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710

Up — $53.94

drfc4eybh7i8

Up — $26

soswald1

Up — $20

uninformedfloww

Up — $18

dvasdkasodk

Up — $5.05

asdaefef

Down — $0

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