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Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.
XRP Up or Down - November 15, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET
Resolved Up. 14% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.
RESOLVED
💀
Lost
Consensus Traders
7
Down 14%
Total Value
$561.38
Combined PnL
-$515.9
Smart Money Signal
Down
1 of 7 top traders (14%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Market Activity
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Outcome Probabilities
Up100%
Down0%
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Down1 trader
Total Value$0
Total Shares536
Combined PnL-$522.82
Up6 traders
Total Value$561.38
Total Shares561
Combined PnL+$6.91
Down — 14%Up — 86%
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SO soswald1CTR | Downavg 50¢ | $550 | — | -$522.82 | 52% 3909-3625 (7534) |
BY ByteBadger92 | Upavg 50.5¢ | $507.6 | $498.92 | +$2.16 | 54% 4282-3627 (7909) |
DV dvasdkasodk<$100 | Upavg 95.3¢ | $28.88 | $27.78 | -$1.1 | 50% 2877-2870 (5747) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Upavg 88.3¢ | $10.43 | $11.81 | +$1.38 | 66% 4016-2029 (6045) |
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710<$100 | Upavg 81.7¢ | $9.8 | $12 | +$2.2 | 42% 2132-2886 (5018) |
AS asidjasiodja<$100 | Upavg 81¢ | $4.7 | $5.8 | +$1.1 | 65% 2855-1552 (4407) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Upavg 77¢ | $3.9 | $5.06 | +$1.16 | 62% 4692-2855 (7547) |
SO
soswald1CTRInvested
$550
Value
—
PnL
-$522.82
Record
52%
3909-3625 (7534)
BY
ByteBadger92Invested
$507.6
Value
$498.92
PnL
+$2.16
Record
54%
4282-3627 (7909)
DV
dvasdkasodk<$100Invested
$28.88
Value
$27.78
PnL
-$1.1
Record
50%
2877-2870 (5747)
AS
asdaefef<$100Invested
$10.43
Value
$11.81
PnL
+$1.38
Record
66%
4016-2029 (6045)
0X
0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710<$100Invested
$9.8
Value
$12
PnL
+$2.2
Record
42%
2132-2886 (5018)
AS
asidjasiodja<$100Invested
$4.7
Value
$5.8
PnL
+$1.1
Record
65%
2855-1552 (4407)
DR
drfc4eybh7i8<$100Invested
$3.9
Value
$5.06
PnL
+$1.16
Record
62%
4692-2855 (7547)
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Market Info
Condition ID
0xc0d4fb2f...902eb8
Slug
xrp-updown-5m-1794769500