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Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.

XRP Up or Down - November 15, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET

Resolved Down. 63% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.

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RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

8

Up 63%

Total Value

$15.86

Combined PnL

-$485.79

Smart Money Signal

Up

5 of 8 top traders (63%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up5 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares533

Combined PnL-$486.12

Down3 traders

Total Value$15.86

Total Shares16

Combined PnL+$0.33

Up — 63%Down — 37%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BY ByteBadger92CTR	Upavg 49¢	$504.39	—	-$485.09	54% 4282-3627 (7909)
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Downavg 88.9¢	$13.44	$10.13	+$2.03	62% 4692-2855 (7547)
SO soswald1<$100	Downavg 93¢	$6.44	$4.29	-$2.15	52% 3909-3625 (7534)
UN uninformedfloww<$100	Downavg 69¢	$1	$1.45	+$0.45	49% 2537-2616 (5153)
MayorMamdaniCTR<$100	Upavg 5.8¢	$0.47	—	-$0.47	52% 3078-2785 (5863)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100	Upavg 4¢	$0.24	—	-$0.24	48% 2576-2827 (5403)
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR<$100	Upavg 3¢	$0.21	—	-$0.21	42% 2132-2886 (5018)
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100	Upavg 1¢	$0.1	—	-$0.1	36% 1504-2673 (4177)

ByteBadger92CTR

Invested

$504.39

Value

—

PnL

-$485.09

Record

54%

4282-3627 (7909)

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Invested

$13.44

Value

$10.13

PnL

+$2.03

Record

62%

4692-2855 (7547)

Invested

$6.44

Value

$4.29

PnL

-$2.15

Record

52%

3909-3625 (7534)

uninformedfloww<$100

Invested

$1

Value

$1.45

PnL

+$0.45

Record

49%

2537-2616 (5153)

MayorMamdaniCTR<$100

Invested

$0.47

Value

—

PnL

-$0.47

Record

52%

3078-2785 (5863)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100

Invested

$0.24

Value

—

PnL

-$0.24

Record

48%

2576-2827 (5403)

0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR<$100

Invested

$0.21

Value

—

PnL

-$0.21

Record

42%

2132-2886 (5018)

antsaslykuCTR<$100

Invested

$0.1

Value

—

PnL

-$0.1

Record

36%

1504-2673 (4177)

Smart Money Signal

Up

5 of 8 top traders (63%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0xd02f65b6...b722bf

Slug

xrp-updown-5m-1794768600

Traders in this Market

ByteBadger92

Up — $0

drfc4eybh7i8

Down — $10.13

soswald1

Down — $4.29

uninformedfloww

Down — $1.45

MayorMamdani

Up — $0

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025

Up — $0

0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710

Up — $0

antsaslyku

Up — $0

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