Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
XRP Up or Down - November 15, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET
Resolved Down. 62% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
13
Down 62%
1 arb excluded
$973.75
-$70.75
Smart Money Signal
8 of 13 top traders (62%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100 | Upavg 49.9¢ | $510.21 | $490.01 | -$5.5 | 54% 4218-3562 (7780) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 50.1¢ | $245.69 | $490.01 | +$249 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 49.9¢ | $254.5 | — | -$254.5 | |
 BoneOhio | Downavg 97.2¢ | $256.11 | $263.55 | +$7.44 | 70% 1831-785 (2616) |
HO hoodquant<$100 | Downavg 99¢ | $96.03 | $97 | +$0.97 | 98% 4498-92 (4590) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609<$100 | Downavg 86¢ | $55.24 | $42 | -$13.24 | 49% 3629-3730 (7359) |
UN uninformedflowwCTR<$100 | Upavg 43¢ | $32.25 | — | -$32.25 | 49% 2495-2563 (5058) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Downavg 79.2¢ | $24.33 | $23 | -$1.25 | 62% 4631-2815 (7446) |
 G-Penis-Monster<$100 | Downavg 78.7¢ | $23.31 | $25 | +$1.69 | 44% 2407-3121 (5528) |
DV dvasdkasodk<$100 | Downavg 99¢ | $13.77 | $13 | -$0.77 | 50% 2835-2829 (5664) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100 | Downavg 78¢ | $12 | $15.38 | +$3.38 | 48% 2544-2786 (5330) |
 ohioismCTR<$100 | Upavg 44¢ | $6.6 | — | -$6.6 | 48% 2440-2688 (5128) |
AN antsaslyku<$100 | Downavg 55¢ | $2.64 | $4.8 | +$2.16 | 36% 1488-2638 (4126) |
AS asdaefefCTR<$100 | Upavg 28¢ | $1.5 | — | -$1.5 | 67% 3966-1997 (5963) |
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR<$100 | Upavg 47¢ | $2.82 | — | -$2.82 | 42% 2086-2846 (4932) |
SO soswald1CTR<$100 | Upavg 44.4¢ | $27.97 | — | -$27.97 | 52% 3858-3579 (7437) |
Invested
$510.21
Value
$490.01
PnL
-$5.5
Record
54%
4218-3562 (7780)
Both legs:
BoneOhioInvested
$256.11
Value
$263.55
PnL
+$7.44
Record
70%
1831-785 (2616)
Invested
$96.03
Value
$97
PnL
+$0.97
Record
98%
4498-92 (4590)
Invested
$55.24
Value
$42
PnL
-$13.24
Record
49%
3629-3730 (7359)
Invested
$32.25
Value
—
PnL
-$32.25
Record
49%
2495-2563 (5058)
Invested
$24.33
Value
$23
PnL
-$1.25
Record
62%
4631-2815 (7446)
G-Penis-Monster<$100Invested
$23.31
Value
$25
PnL
+$1.69
Record
44%
2407-3121 (5528)
Invested
$13.77
Value
$13
PnL
-$0.77
Record
50%
2835-2829 (5664)
Invested
$12
Value
$15.38
PnL
+$3.38
Record
48%
2544-2786 (5330)
ohioismCTR<$100Invested
$6.6
Value
—
PnL
-$6.6
Record
48%
2440-2688 (5128)
Invested
$2.64
Value
$4.8
PnL
+$2.16
Record
36%
1488-2638 (4126)
Invested
$1.5
Value
—
PnL
-$1.5
Record
67%
3966-1997 (5963)
Invested
$2.82
Value
—
PnL
-$2.82
Record
42%
2086-2846 (4932)
Invested
$27.97
Value
—
PnL
-$27.97
Record
52%
3858-3579 (7437)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
ByteBadger92
ARBArbitrage — excluded
BoneOhio
Down — $263.55
hoodquant
Down — $97
0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609
Down — $42
uninformedfloww
CTRUp — $0
drfc4eybh7i8
Down — $23
G-Penis-Monster
Down — $25
dvasdkasodk
Down — $13
0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025
Down — $15.38
ohioism
CTRUp — $0