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Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up

XRP Up or Down - November 15, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET

Resolved Up. 57% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.

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RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

7

Up 57%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.1K

Combined PnL

-$25.8

Smart Money Signal

Up

4 of 7 top traders (57%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up4 traders

Total Value$31

Total Shares31

Combined PnL+$1.15

Down3 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares172

Combined PnL-$26.95

Up — 57%Down — 43%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SO soswald1ARB<$100	Upavg 50¢	$550	$550	+$2.8	52% 3858-3579 (7437)
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$275	$550	+$275
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$269.76	—	-$272.2
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100	Upavg 50.6¢	$508.3	$500	+$0.8	54% 4218-3562 (7780)
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$250	—	-$250
└ Up leg	Upavg 50.6¢	$253.24	$500	+$250.8
DV dvasdkasodk<$100	Upavg 99¢	$10.89	$11	+$0.11	50% 2835-2829 (5664)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100	Downavg 43.5¢	$4.35	—	-$4.35	48% 2518-2730 (5248)
AS asdaefef<$100	Upavg 99¢	$7.92	$8	+$0.08	67% 3966-1997 (5963)
MayorMamdani<$100	Upavg 87¢	$6.09	$7	+$0.91	52% 3043-2759 (5802)
ohioismCTR<$100	Downavg 12¢	$0.6	—	-$0.6	48% 2440-2688 (5128)
AS asidjasiodja<$100	Upavg 99¢	$4.95	$5	+$0.05	65% 2817-1530 (4347)
UN uninformedflowwCTR<$100	Downavg 14¢	$22	—	-$22	49% 2495-2563 (5058)

soswald1ARB<$100

Invested

$550

Value

$550

PnL

+$2.8

Record

52%

3858-3579 (7437)

Both legs:

Up$27550¢+$275

Down$269.7650¢-$272.2

ByteBadger92ARB<$100

Invested

$508.3

Value

$500

PnL

+$0.8

Record

54%

4218-3562 (7780)

Both legs:

Down$25050¢-$250

Up$253.2450.6¢+$250.8

dvasdkasodk<$100

Invested

$10.89

Value

$11

PnL

+$0.11

Record

50%

2835-2829 (5664)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100

Invested

$4.35

Value

—

PnL

-$4.35

Record

48%

2518-2730 (5248)

Invested

$7.92

Value

$8

PnL

+$0.08

Record

67%

3966-1997 (5963)

MayorMamdani<$100

Invested

$6.09

Value

$7

PnL

+$0.91

Record

52%

3043-2759 (5802)

ohioismCTR<$100

Invested

$0.6

Value

—

PnL

-$0.6

Record

48%

2440-2688 (5128)

asidjasiodja<$100

Invested

$4.95

Value

$5

PnL

+$0.05

Record

65%

2817-1530 (4347)

uninformedflowwCTR<$100

Invested

$22

Value

—

PnL

-$22

Record

49%

2495-2563 (5058)

Smart Money Signal

Up

4 of 7 top traders (57%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x6dfed7b6...1b0ff2

Slug

xrp-updown-5m-1794762900

Traders in this Market

soswald1

Arbitrage — excluded

ByteBadger92

Arbitrage — excluded

dvasdkasodk

Up — $11

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530

Down — $0

asdaefef

Up — $8

MayorMamdani

Up — $7

ohioism

Down — $0

asidjasiodja

Up — $5

uninformedfloww

Down — $0

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