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Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.

XRP Up or Down - November 15, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET

Resolved Down. 55% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.

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RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

11

Up 55%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$605.97

Combined PnL

-$40.38

Smart Money Signal

Up

6 of 11 top traders (55%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down5 traders

Total Value$108.65

Total Shares109

Combined PnL+$8.09

Up6 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares118

Combined PnL-$48.47

Down — 45%Up — 55%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100	Downavg 50¢	$515.02	$497.32	+$5.26	54% 4218-3562 (7780)
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$248.7	$497.32	+$250.45
└ Up leg	Upavg 49.2¢	$244.35	—	-$245.18
HO hoodquant<$100	Downavg 99¢	$39.59	$40	+$0.41	98% 4498-92 (4590)
SO soswald1<$100	Downavg 68.7¢	$39.54	$35.65	-$3.88	52% 3858-3579 (7437)
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100	Upavg 41.3¢	$19.47	—	-$19.47	36% 1488-2638 (4126)
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Downavg 71¢	$11.37	$16	+$4.63	62% 4631-2815 (7446)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100	Upavg 32.5¢	$8.85	—	-$8.85	48% 2518-2730 (5248)
BoneOhioCTR<$100	Upavg 54.9¢	$8.7	—	-$8.7	70% 1831-785 (2616)
UN uninformedfloww<$100	Downavg 68.4¢	$9.97	$12	+$2.03	49% 2495-2563 (5058)
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100	Upavg 36.7¢	$5.51	—	-$5.51	50% 2835-2829 (5664)
AS asdaefefCTR<$100	Upavg 60¢	$4.2	—	-$4.2	67% 3966-1997 (5963)
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR<$100	Upavg 28.9¢	$1.73	—	-$1.73	49% 3629-3730 (7359)
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710<$100	Downavg 2¢	$0.1	$5	+$4.9	42% 2086-2846 (4932)

ByteBadger92ARB<$100

Invested

$515.02

Value

$497.32

PnL

+$5.26

Record

54%

4218-3562 (7780)

Both legs:

Down$248.750¢+$250.45

Up$244.3549.2¢-$245.18

Invested

$39.59

Value

$40

PnL

+$0.41

Record

98%

4498-92 (4590)

Invested

$39.54

Value

$35.65

PnL

-$3.88

Record

52%

3858-3579 (7437)

antsaslykuCTR<$100

Invested

$19.47

Value

—

PnL

-$19.47

Record

36%

1488-2638 (4126)

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Invested

$11.37

Value

$16

PnL

+$4.63

Record

62%

4631-2815 (7446)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100

Invested

$8.85

Value

—

PnL

-$8.85

Record

48%

2518-2730 (5248)

BoneOhioCTR<$100

Invested

$8.7

Value

—

PnL

-$8.7

Record

70%

1831-785 (2616)

uninformedfloww<$100

Invested

$9.97

Value

$12

PnL

+$2.03

Record

49%

2495-2563 (5058)

dvasdkasodkCTR<$100

Invested

$5.51

Value

—

PnL

-$5.51

Record

50%

2835-2829 (5664)

asdaefefCTR<$100

Invested

$4.2

Value

—

PnL

-$4.2

Record

67%

3966-1997 (5963)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR<$100

Invested

$1.73

Value

—

PnL

-$1.73

Record

49%

3629-3730 (7359)

0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710<$100

Invested

$0.1

Value

$5

PnL

+$4.9

Record

42%

2086-2846 (4932)

Smart Money Signal

Up

6 of 11 top traders (55%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0xfa89424c...c8ab68

Slug

xrp-updown-5m-1794762600

Traders in this Market

ByteBadger92

Arbitrage — excluded

hoodquant

Down — $40

soswald1

Down — $35.65

antsaslyku

Up — $0

drfc4eybh7i8

Down — $16

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530

Up — $0

BoneOhio

Up — $0

uninformedfloww

Down — $12

dvasdkasodk

Up — $0

asdaefef

Up — $0

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