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Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.
XRP Up or Down - November 15, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET
Resolved Up. 43% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.
RESOLVED
💀
Lost
Consensus Traders
7
Down 43%
Total Value
$44.03
Combined PnL
-$506.95
Smart Money Signal
Down
3 of 7 top traders (43%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Market Activity
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Outcome Probabilities
Up100%
Down0%
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Down3 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares538
Combined PnL-$512.95
Up4 traders
Total Value$44.03
Total Shares44
Combined PnL+$6.01
Down — 43%Up — 57%
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BY ByteBadger92CTR | Downavg 50.1¢ | $503.05 | — | -$501.75 | 54% 4162-3504 (7666) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Upavg 79.2¢ | $14.43 | $16.08 | +$1.85 | 62% 4574-2778 (7352) |
SO soswald1CTR<$100 | Downavg 20¢ | $11.17 | — | -$11.17 | 52% 3806-3541 (7347) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Upavg 88.3¢ | $9.05 | $10.25 | +$1.2 | 66% 3908-1973 (5881) |
AN antsaslyku<$100 | Upavg 79¢ | $9.99 | $12.65 | +$2.66 | 36% 1471-2611 (4082) |
AS asidjasiodja<$100 | Upavg 94¢ | $4.75 | $5.05 | +$0.3 | 65% 2772-1511 (4283) |
0X 0x50f7CTR<$100 | Downavg 1¢ | $0.03 | — | -$0.03 | 53% 1576-1397 (2973) |
BY
ByteBadger92CTRInvested
$503.05
Value
—
PnL
-$501.75
Record
54%
4162-3504 (7666)
DR
drfc4eybh7i8<$100Invested
$14.43
Value
$16.08
PnL
+$1.85
Record
62%
4574-2778 (7352)
SO
soswald1CTR<$100Invested
$11.17
Value
—
PnL
-$11.17
Record
52%
3806-3541 (7347)
AS
asdaefef<$100Invested
$9.05
Value
$10.25
PnL
+$1.2
Record
66%
3908-1973 (5881)
AN
antsaslyku<$100Invested
$9.99
Value
$12.65
PnL
+$2.66
Record
36%
1471-2611 (4082)
AS
asidjasiodja<$100Invested
$4.75
Value
$5.05
PnL
+$0.3
Record
65%
2772-1511 (4283)
0X
0x50f7CTR<$100Invested
$0.03
Value
—
PnL
-$0.03
Record
53%
1576-1397 (2973)
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Market Info
Condition ID
0xbffbb93a...e6bec0
Slug
xrp-updown-5m-1794756600