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UpUpDown
ohioismCTR<$100UpUpDown
Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.
XRP Up or Down - November 15, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET
Resolved Down. 60% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.
RESOLVED
💀
Lost
Consensus Traders
5
Up 60%
1 arb excluded
Total Value
$514.94
Combined PnL
-$532.05
Smart Money Signal
Up
3 of 5 top traders (60%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Market Activity
Loading chart data…
Outcome Probabilities
Up0%
Down100%
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Up3 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares580
Combined PnL-$529.75
Down2 traders
Total Value$24.94
Total Shares25
Combined PnL-$2.3
Up — 60%Down — 40%
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SO soswald1CTR | Upavg 50¢ | $550 | — | -$519.98 | 52% 3806-3541 (7347) |
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100 | Upavg 50.2¢ | $506.2 | $490 | -$3.93 | 54% 4162-3504 (7666) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 50¢ | $245 | $490 | +$247 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 50.2¢ | $250.37 | — | -$250.93 | |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Downavg 93¢ | $28.17 | $21 | -$2.34 | 62% 4574-2778 (7352) |
ohioismCTR<$100 | Upavg 32.1¢ | $4.82 | — | -$4.82 | 48% 2407-2652 (5059) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100 | Upavg 33¢ | $4.95 | — | -$4.95 | 48% 2484-2691 (5175) |
AS asidjasiodja<$100 | Downavg 99¢ | $3.9 | $3.94 | +$0.04 | 65% 2772-1511 (4283) |
SO
soswald1CTRInvested
$550
Value
—
PnL
-$519.98
Record
52%
3806-3541 (7347)
BY
ByteBadger92ARB<$100Invested
$506.2
Value
$490
PnL
-$3.93
Record
54%
4162-3504 (7666)
Both legs:
Down$24550¢+$247
Up$250.3750.2¢-$250.93
DR
drfc4eybh7i8<$100Invested
$28.17
Value
$21
PnL
-$2.34
Record
62%
4574-2778 (7352)
ohioismCTR<$100Invested
$4.82
Value
—
PnL
-$4.82
Record
48%
2407-2652 (5059)
0X
0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100Invested
$4.95
Value
—
PnL
-$4.95
Record
48%
2484-2691 (5175)
AS
asidjasiodja<$100Invested
$3.9
Value
$3.94
PnL
+$0.04
Record
65%
2772-1511 (4283)
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Market Info
Condition ID
0x48bd5882...365bae
Slug
xrp-updown-5m-1794756000