Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up
XRP Up or Down - November 15, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET
Resolved Up. 71% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
7
Up 71%
1 arb excluded
$573.61
$16.38
Smart Money Signal
5 of 7 top traders (71%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100 | Downavg 49.1¢ | $510.73 | $495 | +$1.25 | 54% 4162-3504 (7666) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 50.1¢ | $247.79 | $495 | +$249.5 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 49.1¢ | $248.06 | — | -$248.25 | |
SO soswald1<$100 | Upavg 54.1¢ | $23.61 | $43.61 | +$20.01 | 52% 3806-3541 (7347) |
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100 | Downavg 33.8¢ | $10.36 | — | -$10.36 | 36% 1471-2611 (4082) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100 | Upavg 33¢ | $3.96 | $12 | +$8.04 | 48% 2484-2691 (5175) |
 MayorMamdani<$100 | Upavg 61.5¢ | $6.15 | $10 | +$3.85 | 52% 2997-2745 (5742) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Upavg 85¢ | $4.25 | $5 | +$0.75 | 66% 3908-1973 (5881) |
DV dvasdkasodk<$100 | Upavg 66¢ | $5.28 | $8 | +$2.72 | 50% 2795-2794 (5589) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8CTR<$100 | Downavg 47.5¢ | $12.35 | — | -$8.63 | 62% 4574-2778 (7352) |
Invested
$510.73
Value
$495
PnL
+$1.25
Record
54%
4162-3504 (7666)
Both legs:
Invested
$23.61
Value
$43.61
PnL
+$20.01
Record
52%
3806-3541 (7347)
Invested
$10.36
Value
—
PnL
-$10.36
Record
36%
1471-2611 (4082)
Invested
$3.96
Value
$12
PnL
+$8.04
Record
48%
2484-2691 (5175)
MayorMamdani<$100Invested
$6.15
Value
$10
PnL
+$3.85
Record
52%
2997-2745 (5742)
Invested
$4.25
Value
$5
PnL
+$0.75
Record
66%
3908-1973 (5881)
Invested
$5.28
Value
$8
PnL
+$2.72
Record
50%
2795-2794 (5589)
Invested
$12.35
Value
—
PnL
-$8.63
Record
62%
4574-2778 (7352)