Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up
XRP Up or Down - November 15, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET
Resolved Up. 71% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
7
Up 71%
1 arb excluded
$570.87
$17.08
Smart Money Signal
5 of 7 top traders (71%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100 | Downavg 50¢ | $510.19 | $496.41 | -$4.2 | 54% 4162-3504 (7666) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 50¢ | $253.46 | — | -$252.85 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 49.9¢ | $247.91 | $496.41 | +$248.65 | |
SO soswald1<$100 | Upavg 39.1¢ | $14.39 | $36.8 | +$22.41 | 52% 3806-3541 (7347) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Upavg 97¢ | $16.16 | $13 | -$3.16 | 66% 3908-1973 (5881) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Upavg 74¢ | $23.24 | $11 | -$2.4 | 62% 4574-2778 (7352) |
AS asidjasiodja<$100 | Upavg 99¢ | $6.93 | $7 | +$0.07 | 65% 2772-1511 (4283) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609<$100 | Upavg 34.8¢ | $3.82 | $6.67 | +$2.85 | 49% 3600-3701 (7301) |
 BoneOhioCTR<$100 | Downavg 62¢ | $2.65 | — | -$2.65 | 70% 1807-771 (2578) |
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100 | Downavg 1¢ | $0.05 | — | -$0.05 | 36% 1471-2611 (4082) |
Invested
$510.19
Value
$496.41
PnL
-$4.2
Record
54%
4162-3504 (7666)
Both legs:
Invested
$14.39
Value
$36.8
PnL
+$22.41
Record
52%
3806-3541 (7347)
Invested
$16.16
Value
$13
PnL
-$3.16
Record
66%
3908-1973 (5881)
Invested
$23.24
Value
$11
PnL
-$2.4
Record
62%
4574-2778 (7352)
Invested
$6.93
Value
$7
PnL
+$0.07
Record
65%
2772-1511 (4283)
Invested
$3.82
Value
$6.67
PnL
+$2.85
Record
49%
3600-3701 (7301)
BoneOhioCTR<$100Invested
$2.65
Value
—
PnL
-$2.65
Record
70%
1807-771 (2578)
Invested
$0.05
Value
—
PnL
-$0.05
Record
36%
1471-2611 (4082)