Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
XRP Up or Down - November 15, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET
Resolved Down. 75% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
8
Down 75%
1 arb excluded
$1.1K
-$3.54
Smart Money Signal
6 of 8 top traders (75%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SO soswald1ARB<$100 | Upavg 50¢ | $550 | $504.26 | -$11.03 | 52% 3806-3541 (7347) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 50¢ | $252.13 | $504.26 | +$263.97 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 50¢ | $275 | — | -$275 | |
BY ByteBadger92 | Downavg 50.4¢ | $506.8 | $500.01 | +$4.35 | 54% 4162-3504 (7666) |
HO hoodquant<$100 | Downavg 99¢ | $23.86 | $24.1 | +$0.24 | 98% 4434-91 (4525) |
 MayorMamdani<$100 | Downavg 84.8¢ | $10.18 | $12 | +$1.82 | 52% 2997-2745 (5742) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609<$100 | Downavg 71¢ | $7.58 | $6 | -$1.58 | 49% 3600-3701 (7301) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Downavg 60¢ | $8.15 | $10.33 | +$2.18 | 62% 4574-2778 (7352) |
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR<$100 | Upavg 38¢ | $4.56 | — | -$4.56 | 42% 2048-2798 (4846) |
DV dvasdkasodk<$100 | Downavg 98¢ | $4.9 | $5 | +$0.1 | 50% 2795-2794 (5589) |
UN uninformedflowwCTR<$100 | Upavg 21¢ | $6.09 | — | -$6.09 | 49% 2456-2514 (4970) |
Invested
$550
Value
$504.26
PnL
-$11.03
Record
52%
3806-3541 (7347)
Both legs:
Invested
$506.8
Value
$500.01
PnL
+$4.35
Record
54%
4162-3504 (7666)
Invested
$23.86
Value
$24.1
PnL
+$0.24
Record
98%
4434-91 (4525)
MayorMamdani<$100Invested
$10.18
Value
$12
PnL
+$1.82
Record
52%
2997-2745 (5742)
Invested
$7.58
Value
$6
PnL
-$1.58
Record
49%
3600-3701 (7301)
Invested
$8.15
Value
$10.33
PnL
+$2.18
Record
62%
4574-2778 (7352)
Invested
$4.56
Value
—
PnL
-$4.56
Record
42%
2048-2798 (4846)
Invested
$4.9
Value
$5
PnL
+$0.1
Record
50%
2795-2794 (5589)
Invested
$6.09
Value
—
PnL
-$6.09
Record
49%
2456-2514 (4970)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
soswald1
ARBArbitrage — excluded
ByteBadger92
Down — $500.01
hoodquant
Down — $24.1
MayorMamdani
Down — $12
0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609
Down — $6
drfc4eybh7i8
Down — $10.33
0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710
CTRUp — $0
dvasdkasodk
Down — $5
uninformedfloww
CTRUp — $0