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Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.

XRP Up or Down - November 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET

Resolved Up. 50% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.

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RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

8

Down 50%

Total Value

$47.68

Combined PnL

-$551.03

Smart Money Signal

Down

4 of 8 top traders (50%)7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down4 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares590

Combined PnL-$567.18

Up4 traders

Total Value$47.68

Total Shares48

Combined PnL+$16.15

Down — 50%Up — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BY ByteBadger92	Downavg 49¢	$507.22	—	-$493.41	54% 4162-3504 (7666)
SO soswald1<$100	Downavg 51.9¢	$67.59	—	-$67.59	52% 3806-3541 (7347)
MayorMamdani<$100	Upavg 97¢	$13.58	$14	+$0.42	52% 2997-2745 (5742)
DV dvasdkasodk<$100	Upavg 37¢	$6.32	$10.27	+$3.95	50% 2795-2794 (5589)
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Upavg 36.1¢	$9.81	$17.41	+$9.8	62% 4574-2778 (7352)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100	Downavg 42¢	$4.2	—	-$4.2	48% 2484-2691 (5175)
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710<$100	Upavg 67¢	$4.02	$6	+$1.98	42% 2048-2798 (4846)
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609<$100	Downavg 33¢	$1.98	—	-$1.98	49% 3600-3701 (7301)

Invested

$507.22

Value

—

PnL

-$493.41

Record

54%

4162-3504 (7666)

Invested

$67.59

Value

—

PnL

-$67.59

Record

52%

3806-3541 (7347)

MayorMamdani<$100

Invested

$13.58

Value

$14

PnL

+$0.42

Record

52%

2997-2745 (5742)

dvasdkasodk<$100

Invested

$6.32

Value

$10.27

PnL

+$3.95

Record

50%

2795-2794 (5589)

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Invested

$9.81

Value

$17.41

PnL

+$9.8

Record

62%

4574-2778 (7352)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100

Invested

$4.2

Value

—

PnL

-$4.2

Record

48%

2484-2691 (5175)

0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710<$100

Invested

$4.02

Value

$6

PnL

+$1.98

Record

42%

2048-2798 (4846)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609<$100

Invested

$1.98

Value

—

PnL

-$1.98

Record

49%

3600-3701 (7301)

Smart Money Signal

Down

4 of 8 top traders (50%)7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0xf8bd8c34...3a7af4

Slug

xrp-updown-5m-1794753900

Traders in this Market

ByteBadger92

Down — $0

soswald1

Down — $0

MayorMamdani

Up — $14

dvasdkasodk

Up — $10.27

drfc4eybh7i8

Up — $17.41

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530

Down — $0

0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710

Up — $6

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Down — $0

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