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Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.

XRP Up or Down - November 15, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET

Resolved Down. 17% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.

View on Polymarket
RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

12

Up 17%

Total Value

$591.47

Combined PnL

-$492.89

Smart Money Signal

Up

2 of 12 top traders (17%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%
Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up2 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares536
Combined PnL-$500.44
Down10 traders
Total Value$591.47
Total Shares591
Combined PnL+$7.55
Up — 17%Down — 83%
SO
soswald1CTR
Up

Invested

$550

Value

—

PnL

-$500.36

Record

52%

3806-3541 (7347)

BY
ByteBadger92
Down

Invested

$500.92

Value

$500

PnL

+$2.1

Record

54%

4162-3504 (7666)

ohioism<$100
Down

Invested

$12.15

Value

$15

PnL

+$2.85

Record

48%

2407-2652 (5059)

0X
0x50f7<$100
Down

Invested

$14.98

Value

$15

PnL

+$0.02

Record

53%

1576-1397 (2973)

0X
0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710<$100
Down

Invested

$13.08

Value

$14.53

PnL

+$1.45

Record

42%

2048-2798 (4846)

MayorMamdani<$100
Down

Invested

$10.56

Value

$11

PnL

+$0.44

Record

52%

2997-2745 (5742)

AS
asdaefef<$100
Down

Invested

$10.01

Value

$9.05

PnL

-$0.96

Record

66%

3908-1973 (5881)

DV
dvasdkasodk<$100
Down

Invested

$9.85

Value

$10.11

PnL

+$0.26

Record

50%

2795-2794 (5589)

AS
asidjasiodja<$100
Down

Invested

$5.82

Value

$6.06

PnL

+$0.24

Record

65%

2772-1511 (4283)

UN
uninformedfloww<$100
Down

Invested

$5.31

Value

$5.71

PnL

+$0.4

Record

49%

2456-2514 (4970)

DR
drfc4eybh7i8<$100
Down

Invested

$4.25

Value

$5

PnL

+$0.75

Record

62%

4574-2778 (7352)

0X
0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR<$100
Up

Invested

$0.08

Value

—

PnL

-$0.08

Record

49%

3600-3701 (7301)

Chat

Market Info

Condition ID
0x1f48e81f...40ecb3
Slug
xrp-updown-5m-1794753600

Traders in this Market

SO

soswald1

CTR

Up — $0

-$500.36
BY

ByteBadger92

Down — $500

+$2.1

ohioism

Down — $15

+$2.85
0X

0x50f7

Down — $15

+$0.02
0X

0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710

Down — $14.53

+$1.45

MayorMamdani

Down — $11

+$0.44
AS

asdaefef

Down — $9.05

-$0.96
DV

dvasdkasodk

Down — $10.11

+$0.26
AS

asidjasiodja

Down — $6.06

+$0.24
UN

uninformedfloww

Down — $5.71

+$0.4
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