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Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.

XRP Up or Down - November 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET

Resolved Down. 14% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.

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RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

7

Up 14%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$614.24

Combined PnL

-$492.05

Smart Money Signal

Up

1 of 7 top traders (14%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up1 trader

Total Value$0

Total Shares506

Combined PnL-$496.67

Down6 traders

Total Value$64.24

Total Shares64

Combined PnL+$4.62

Up — 14%Down — 86%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SO soswald1ARB<$100	Downavg 50¢	$550	$550	+$2.8	52% 3756-3495 (7251)
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$275	$550	+$275
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$270.04	—	-$272.2
BY ByteBadger92CTR	Upavg 49.5¢	$502.68	—	-$496.67	54% 4094-3445 (7539)
DV dvasdkasodk<$100	Downavg 98.8¢	$27.19	$26	-$1.19	50% 2760-2748 (5508)
AS asdaefef<$100	Downavg 99¢	$12.6	$11	-$1.6	67% 3861-1939 (5800)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100	Downavg 66¢	$9.9	$15	+$5.1	48% 2474-2726 (5200)
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Downavg 76.5¢	$7.65	$5	+$2.3	62% 4514-2735 (7249)
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710<$100	Downavg 85¢	$5.1	$6	+$0.9	42% 2015-2741 (4756)
AS asidjasiodja<$100	Downavg 99¢	$2.13	$1.24	-$0.89	65% 2731-1490 (4221)

soswald1ARB<$100

Invested

$550

Value

$550

PnL

+$2.8

Record

52%

3756-3495 (7251)

Both legs:

Down$27550¢+$275

Up$270.0450¢-$272.2

ByteBadger92CTR

Invested

$502.68

Value

—

PnL

-$496.67

Record

54%

4094-3445 (7539)

dvasdkasodk<$100

Invested

$27.19

Value

$26

PnL

-$1.19

Record

50%

2760-2748 (5508)

Invested

$12.6

Value

$11

PnL

-$1.6

Record

67%

3861-1939 (5800)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100

Invested

$9.9

Value

$15

PnL

+$5.1

Record

48%

2474-2726 (5200)

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Invested

$7.65

Value

$5

PnL

+$2.3

Record

62%

4514-2735 (7249)

0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710<$100

Invested

$5.1

Value

$6

PnL

+$0.9

Record

42%

2015-2741 (4756)

asidjasiodja<$100

Invested

$2.13

Value

$1.24

PnL

-$0.89

Record

65%

2731-1490 (4221)

Smart Money Signal

Up

1 of 7 top traders (14%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0xc57e34c1...5ad08c

Slug

xrp-updown-5m-1794749400

Traders in this Market

soswald1

Arbitrage — excluded

ByteBadger92

Up — $0

dvasdkasodk

Down — $26

asdaefef

Down — $11

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025

Down — $15

drfc4eybh7i8

Down — $5

0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710

Down — $6

asidjasiodja

Down — $1.24

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