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Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.

XRP Up or Down - November 15, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET

Resolved Up. 30% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.

View on Polymarket
RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

10

Down 30%

Total Value

$234.55

Combined PnL

-$511.85

Smart Money Signal

Down

3 of 10 top traders (30%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%
Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down3 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares554
Combined PnL-$526.23
Up7 traders
Total Value$234.55
Total Shares235
Combined PnL+$14.38
Down — 30%Up — 70%
BY
ByteBadger92CTR
Down

Invested

$513.25

Value

—

PnL

-$486.34

Record

54%

4094-3445 (7539)

SO
soswald1<$100
Up

Invested

$99.29

Value

$92.05

PnL

-$7.24

Record

52%

3756-3495 (7251)

HO
hoodquant<$100
Up

Invested

$86.13

Value

$87

PnL

+$0.87

Record

98%

4362-90 (4452)

0X
0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR<$100
Down

Invested

$41.15

Value

—

PnL

-$37.95

Record

49%

3552-3629 (7181)

DR
drfc4eybh7i8<$100
Up

Invested

$23.65

Value

$20.13

PnL

-$3.52

Record

62%

4514-2735 (7249)

AS
asdaefef<$100
Up

Invested

$5.05

Value

$10.26

PnL

+$5.21

Record

67%

3861-1939 (5800)

0X
0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100
Up

Invested

$0.85

Value

$5

PnL

+$4.15

Record

48%

2474-2726 (5200)

ohioism<$100
Up

Invested

$3

Value

$15

PnL

+$12

Record

48%

2373-2615 (4988)

MayorMamdaniCTR<$100
Down

Invested

$1.94

Value

—

PnL

-$1.94

Record

52%

2972-2710 (5682)

DV
dvasdkasodk<$100
Up

Invested

$2.2

Value

$5.12

PnL

+$2.92

Record

50%

2760-2748 (5508)

Chat

Market Info

Condition ID
0x622accfa...ab9a92
Slug
xrp-updown-5m-1794748200

Traders in this Market

BY

ByteBadger92

CTR

Down — $0

-$486.34
SO

soswald1

Up — $92.05

-$7.24
HO

hoodquant

Up — $87

+$0.87
0X

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

CTR

Down — $0

-$37.95
DR

drfc4eybh7i8

Up — $20.13

-$3.52
AS

asdaefef

Up — $10.26

+$5.21
0X

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025

Up — $5

+$4.15

ohioism

Up — $15

+$12

MayorMamdani

CTR

Down — $0

-$1.94
DV

dvasdkasodk

Up — $5.12

+$2.92
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