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UpUp
G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100UpUpUpUpDown
Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.
XRP Up or Down - November 15, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET
Resolved Down. 83% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.
RESOLVED
💀
Lost
Consensus Traders
6
Up 83%
1 arb excluded
Total Value
$494.45
Combined PnL
-$33.22
Smart Money Signal
Up
5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Market Activity
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Outcome Probabilities
Up0%
Down100%
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Up5 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares58
Combined PnL-$34.38
Down1 trader
Total Value$1.46
Total Shares1
Combined PnL+$1.15
Up — 83%Down — 17%
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100 | Upavg 50¢ | $511.81 | $492.99 | +$7.08 | 54% 4094-3445 (7539) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 48.9¢ | $240.98 | $492.99 | +$252.03 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 50¢ | $247.66 | — | -$244.95 | |
SO soswald1CTR<$100 | Upavg 64.3¢ | $13.41 | — | -$13.41 | 52% 3756-3495 (7251) |
G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100 | Upavg 66.7¢ | $10 | — | -$10 | 44% 2349-3036 (5385) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR<$100 | Upavg 62.7¢ | $6.74 | — | -$6.74 | 49% 3552-3629 (7181) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8CTR<$100 | Upavg 61¢ | $3.15 | — | -$3.15 | 62% 4514-2735 (7249) |
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100 | Upavg 6¢ | $1.08 | — | -$1.08 | 50% 2760-2748 (5508) |
UN uninformedfloww<$100 | Downavg 21¢ | $0.31 | $1.46 | +$1.15 | 49% 2434-2485 (4919) |
BY
ByteBadger92ARB<$100Invested
$511.81
Value
$492.99
PnL
+$7.08
Record
54%
4094-3445 (7539)
Both legs:
Down$240.9848.9¢+$252.03
Up$247.6650¢-$244.95
SO
soswald1CTR<$100Invested
$13.41
Value
—
PnL
-$13.41
Record
52%
3756-3495 (7251)
G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100Invested
$10
Value
—
PnL
-$10
Record
44%
2349-3036 (5385)
0X
0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR<$100Invested
$6.74
Value
—
PnL
-$6.74
Record
49%
3552-3629 (7181)
DR
drfc4eybh7i8CTR<$100Invested
$3.15
Value
—
PnL
-$3.15
Record
62%
4514-2735 (7249)
DV
dvasdkasodkCTR<$100Invested
$1.08
Value
—
PnL
-$1.08
Record
50%
2760-2748 (5508)
UN
uninformedfloww<$100Invested
$0.31
Value
$1.46
PnL
+$1.15
Record
49%
2434-2485 (4919)
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Market Info
Condition ID
0xe2a8b85b...d342f0
Slug
xrp-updown-5m-1794746700