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Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.

XRP Up or Down - November 15, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET

Resolved Down. 11% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.

View on Polymarket
RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

9

Up 11%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$588.26

Combined PnL

-$507.49

Smart Money Signal

Up

1 of 9 top traders (11%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%
Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up1 trader
Total Value$0
Total Shares550
Combined PnL-$550
Down8 traders
Total Value$92.39
Total Shares92
Combined PnL+$42.51
Up — 11%Down — 89%
SO
soswald1CTR
Up

Invested

$550

Value

—

PnL

-$550

Record

52%

3683-3445 (7128)

BY
ByteBadger92ARB<$100
Up

Invested

$512.69

Value

$495.88

PnL

+$4.58

Record

54%

3980-3330 (7310)

Both legs:

Up$250.5950.1¢-$244.5
Down$248.0250¢+$249.08
0X
0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609<$100
Down

Invested

$11.79

Value

$23.69

PnL

+$11.9

Record

50%

3495-3507 (7002)

DV
dvasdkasodk<$100
Down

Invested

$5.61

Value

$11

PnL

+$5.39

Record

50%

2694-2677 (5371)

HO
hoodquant<$100
Down

Invested

$5.94

Value

$6

PnL

+$0.06

Record

98%

4234-88 (4322)

DR
drfc4eybh7i8<$100
Down

Invested

$9.08

Value

$10.4

PnL

+$5.52

Record

62%

4407-2657 (7064)

0X
0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100
Down

Invested

$10.65

Value

$15

PnL

+$4.35

Record

48%

2415-2654 (5069)

0X
0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710<$100
Down

Invested

$2.27

Value

$12

PnL

+$9.73

Record

42%

1925-2669 (4594)

MO
mo-money<$100
Down

Invested

$6.93

Value

$9

PnL

+$2.07

Record

52%

1584-1490 (3074)

AS
asidjasiodja<$100
Down

Invested

$1.8

Value

$5.29

PnL

+$3.49

Record

65%

2664-1450 (4114)

Chat

Market Info

Condition ID
0x188d4de6...ab1c8b
Slug
xrp-updown-5m-1794734400

Traders in this Market

SO

soswald1

CTR

Up — $0

-$550
BY

ByteBadger92

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

+$4.58
0X

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Down — $23.69

+$11.9
DV

dvasdkasodk

Down — $11

+$5.39
HO

hoodquant

Down — $6

+$0.06
DR

drfc4eybh7i8

Down — $10.4

+$5.52
0X

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025

Down — $15

+$4.35
0X

0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710

Down — $12

+$9.73
MO

mo-money

Down — $9

+$2.07
AS

asidjasiodja

Down — $5.29

+$3.49
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