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Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.

XRP Up or Down - November 15, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET

Resolved Down. 82% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.

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RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

11

Up 82%

Total Value

$38

Combined PnL

$-1.1K

Smart Money Signal

Up

9 of 11 top traders (82%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up9 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares1,150

Combined PnL$-1.1K

Down2 traders

Total Value$38

Total Shares38

Combined PnL-$0.04

Up — 82%Down — 18%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SO soswald1CTR	Upavg 50¢	$550	—	-$550	52% 3683-3445 (7128)
BY ByteBadger92CTR	Upavg 48.8¢	$518.38	—	-$487.09	54% 3980-3330 (7310)
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Downavg 77.6¢	$32.77	$26	-$5.44	62% 4407-2657 (7064)
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR<$100	Upavg 38.3¢	$16.65	—	-$16.65	50% 3495-3507 (7002)
G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100	Upavg 54.7¢	$11.16	—	-$11.16	44% 2305-2951 (5256)
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710<$100	Downavg 55¢	$6.6	$12	+$5.4	42% 1925-2669 (4594)
MayorMamdaniCTR<$100	Upavg 50¢	$2.5	—	-$2.5	52% 2912-2637 (5549)
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100	Upavg 14.5¢	$2.6	—	-$2.6	50% 2694-2677 (5371)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100	Upavg 12.4¢	$1.86	—	-$1.86	48% 2415-2654 (5069)
AS asdaefefCTR<$100	Upavg 15¢	$1.19	—	-$1.19	67% 3766-1879 (5645)
AS asidjasiodjaCTR<$100	Upavg 20¢	$1.38	—	-$1.38	65% 2664-1450 (4114)

Invested

$550

Value

—

PnL

-$550

Record

52%

3683-3445 (7128)

ByteBadger92CTR

Invested

$518.38

Value

—

PnL

-$487.09

Record

54%

3980-3330 (7310)

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Invested

$32.77

Value

$26

PnL

-$5.44

Record

62%

4407-2657 (7064)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR<$100

Invested

$16.65

Value

—

PnL

-$16.65

Record

50%

3495-3507 (7002)

G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100

Invested

$11.16

Value

—

PnL

-$11.16

Record

44%

2305-2951 (5256)

0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710<$100

Invested

$6.6

Value

$12

PnL

+$5.4

Record

42%

1925-2669 (4594)

MayorMamdaniCTR<$100

Invested

$2.5

Value

—

PnL

-$2.5

Record

52%

2912-2637 (5549)

dvasdkasodkCTR<$100

Invested

$2.6

Value

—

PnL

-$2.6

Record

50%

2694-2677 (5371)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100

Invested

$1.86

Value

—

PnL

-$1.86

Record

48%

2415-2654 (5069)

asdaefefCTR<$100

Invested

$1.19

Value

—

PnL

-$1.19

Record

67%

3766-1879 (5645)

asidjasiodjaCTR<$100

Invested

$1.38

Value

—

PnL

-$1.38

Record

65%

2664-1450 (4114)

Smart Money Signal

Up

9 of 11 top traders (82%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

Market Info

Condition ID

0xccd905cc...50f186

Slug

xrp-updown-5m-1794734100

Traders in this Market

soswald1

Up — $0

ByteBadger92

Up — $0

drfc4eybh7i8

Down — $26

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Up — $0

G-Penis-Monster

Up — $0

0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710

Down — $12

MayorMamdani

Up — $0

dvasdkasodk

Up — $0

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025

Up — $0

asdaefef

Up — $0

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