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Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up

XRP Up or Down - November 15, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET

Resolved Up. 63% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.

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RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

8

Up 63%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.1K

Combined PnL

-$3.72

Smart Money Signal

Up

5 of 8 top traders (63%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down3 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares44

Combined PnL-$31.57

Up5 traders

Total Value$75.59

Total Shares76

Combined PnL+$27.85

Down — 38%Up — 62%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SO soswald1ARB<$100	Downavg 50¢	$550	$514.4	-$7.45	52% 3660-3421 (7081)
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$257.2	$514.4	+$255.79
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$261.35	—	-$263.25
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100	Downavg 50.6¢	$528.06	$494.78	+$0.14	54% 3914-3284 (7198)
└ Up leg	Upavg 49.9¢	$246.7	$494.78	+$250.93
└ Down leg	Downavg 50.6¢	$252.72	—	-$250.8
MayorMamdaniCTR<$100	Downavg 80.5¢	$19.52	—	-$19.52	52% 2876-2608 (5484)
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Upavg 51.8¢	$32.56	$18	-$2.98	62% 4354-2613 (6967)
AN antsaslyku<$100	Upavg 50.5¢	$11.4	$22.59	+$11.19	36% 1429-2521 (3950)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100	Upavg 41.3¢	$6.2	$15	+$8.8	48% 2388-2630 (5018)
PB PBot-5<$100	Upavg 47¢	$6.58	$14	+$7.42	49% 1416-1501 (2917)
AS asdaefefCTR<$100	Downavg 87¢	$4.4	—	-$4.4	67% 3707-1852 (5559)
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710<$100	Upavg 43¢	$2.58	$6	+$3.42	43% 1909-2581 (4490)
ohioismCTR<$100	Downavg 51¢	$7.65	—	-$7.65	47% 2283-2527 (4810)

soswald1ARB<$100

Invested

$550

Value

$514.4

PnL

-$7.45

Record

52%

3660-3421 (7081)

Both legs:

Up$257.250¢+$255.79

Down$261.3550¢-$263.25

ByteBadger92ARB<$100

Invested

$528.06

Value

$494.78

PnL

+$0.14

Record

54%

3914-3284 (7198)

Both legs:

Up$246.749.9¢+$250.93

Down$252.7250.6¢-$250.8

MayorMamdaniCTR<$100

Invested

$19.52

Value

—

PnL

-$19.52

Record

52%

2876-2608 (5484)

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Invested

$32.56

Value

$18

PnL

-$2.98

Record

62%

4354-2613 (6967)

antsaslyku<$100

Invested

$11.4

Value

$22.59

PnL

+$11.19

Record

36%

1429-2521 (3950)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100

Invested

$6.2

Value

$15

PnL

+$8.8

Record

48%

2388-2630 (5018)

Invested

$6.58

Value

$14

PnL

+$7.42

Record

49%

1416-1501 (2917)

asdaefefCTR<$100

Invested

$4.4

Value

—

PnL

-$4.4

Record

67%

3707-1852 (5559)

0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710<$100

Invested

$2.58

Value

$6

PnL

+$3.42

Record

43%

1909-2581 (4490)

ohioismCTR<$100

Invested

$7.65

Value

—

PnL

-$7.65

Record

47%

2283-2527 (4810)

Smart Money Signal

Up

5 of 8 top traders (63%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x705986a4...18d148

Slug

xrp-updown-5m-1794729600

Traders in this Market

soswald1

Arbitrage — excluded

ByteBadger92

Arbitrage — excluded

MayorMamdani

Down — $0

drfc4eybh7i8

Up — $18

antsaslyku

Up — $22.59

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025

Up — $15

PBot-5

Up — $14

asdaefef

Down — $0

0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710

Up — $6

ohioism

Down — $0

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