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Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.

XRP Up or Down - November 15, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET

Resolved Up. 83% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.

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RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

12

Down 83%

Total Value

$28.64

Combined PnL

$-1.1K

Smart Money Signal

Down

10 of 12 top traders (83%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down10 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares1,931

Combined PnL$-1.1K

Up2 traders

Total Value$28.64

Total Shares29

Combined PnL+$2.92

Down — 83%Up — 17%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100	Downavg 1.4¢	$11.34	—	-$11.34	44% 2289-2937 (5226)
SO soswald1CTR	Downavg 50¢	$550	—	-$529.55	52% 3670-3435 (7105)
BY ByteBadger92CTR	Downavg 49.9¢	$514.45	—	-$484.97	54% 3939-3307 (7246)
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Upavg 61.6¢	$15.95	$16.64	-$5.38	63% 4381-2627 (7008)
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100	Downavg 55.9¢	$22.8	—	-$22.8	50% 2671-2654 (5325)
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR<$100	Downavg 32.8¢	$11.28	—	-$11.28	50% 3476-3482 (6958)
ohioismCTR<$100	Downavg 24.4¢	$3.66	—	-$3.66	47% 2293-2538 (4831)
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710<$100	Upavg 30.8¢	$3.7	$12	+$8.3	42% 1920-2608 (4528)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100	Downavg 44¢	$5.4	—	-$5.4	48% 2388-2566 (4954)
AS asidjasiodjaCTR<$100	Downavg 79¢	$12.33	—	-$12.33	65% 2632-1442 (4074)
AS asdaefefCTR<$100	Downavg 77¢	$4.62	—	-$4.62	67% 3730-1865 (5595)
MayorMamdaniCTR<$100	Downavg 80¢	$1.6	—	-$1.6	52% 2890-2619 (5509)

G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100

Invested

$11.34

Value

—

PnL

-$11.34

Record

44%

2289-2937 (5226)

Invested

$550

Value

—

PnL

-$529.55

Record

52%

3670-3435 (7105)

ByteBadger92CTR

Invested

$514.45

Value

—

PnL

-$484.97

Record

54%

3939-3307 (7246)

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Invested

$15.95

Value

$16.64

PnL

-$5.38

Record

63%

4381-2627 (7008)

dvasdkasodkCTR<$100

Invested

$22.8

Value

—

PnL

-$22.8

Record

50%

2671-2654 (5325)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR<$100

Invested

$11.28

Value

—

PnL

-$11.28

Record

50%

3476-3482 (6958)

ohioismCTR<$100

Invested

$3.66

Value

—

PnL

-$3.66

Record

47%

2293-2538 (4831)

0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710<$100

Invested

$3.7

Value

$12

PnL

+$8.3

Record

42%

1920-2608 (4528)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100

Invested

$5.4

Value

—

PnL

-$5.4

Record

48%

2388-2566 (4954)

asidjasiodjaCTR<$100

Invested

$12.33

Value

—

PnL

-$12.33

Record

65%

2632-1442 (4074)

asdaefefCTR<$100

Invested

$4.62

Value

—

PnL

-$4.62

Record

67%

3730-1865 (5595)

MayorMamdaniCTR<$100

Invested

$1.6

Value

—

PnL

-$1.6

Record

52%

2890-2619 (5509)

Smart Money Signal

Down

10 of 12 top traders (83%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x3e5cdc17...9b8d41

Slug

xrp-updown-5m-1794729000

Traders in this Market

G-Penis-Monster

Down — $0

soswald1

Down — $0

ByteBadger92

Down — $0

drfc4eybh7i8

Up — $16.64

dvasdkasodk

Down — $0

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Down — $0

ohioism

Down — $0

0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710

Up — $12

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530

Down — $0

asidjasiodja

Down — $0

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