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Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.
XRP Up or Down - November 15, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET
Resolved Down. 50% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.
RESOLVED
💀
Lost
Consensus Traders
4
Up 50%
2 arb excluded
Total Value
$1.0K
Combined PnL
-$13.19
Smart Money Signal
Up
2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Market Activity
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Outcome Probabilities
Up0%
Down100%
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Up2 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares28
Combined PnL-$17.97
Down2 traders
Total Value$15.07
Total Shares15
Combined PnL+$4.78
Up — 50%Down — 50%
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SO soswald1ARB<$100 | Upavg 50¢ | $550 | $525 | -$9.69 | 52% 3660-3421 (7081) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 50¢ | $262.5 | $525 | +$264.75 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 50¢ | $274 | — | -$274.44 | |
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100 | Upavg 50¢ | $500 | $490 | -$2.5 | 54% 3914-3284 (7198) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 50¢ | $245 | $490 | +$247.5 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 50¢ | $250 | — | -$250 | |
DR drfc4eybh7i8CTR<$100 | Upavg 42.8¢ | $17.23 | — | -$16.77 | 62% 4354-2613 (6967) |
AN antsaslyku<$100 | Downavg 62¢ | $6.24 | $10.07 | +$3.83 | 36% 1429-2521 (3950) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100 | Downavg 81¢ | $4.05 | $5 | +$0.95 | 48% 2388-2630 (5018) |
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100 | Upavg 24¢ | $1.2 | — | -$1.2 | 50% 2651-2645 (5296) |
SO
soswald1ARB<$100Invested
$550
Value
$525
PnL
-$9.69
Record
52%
3660-3421 (7081)
Both legs:
Down$262.550¢+$264.75
Up$27450¢-$274.44
BY
ByteBadger92ARB<$100Invested
$500
Value
$490
PnL
-$2.5
Record
54%
3914-3284 (7198)
Both legs:
Down$24550¢+$247.5
Up$25050¢-$250
DR
drfc4eybh7i8CTR<$100Invested
$17.23
Value
—
PnL
-$16.77
Record
62%
4354-2613 (6967)
AN
antsaslyku<$100Invested
$6.24
Value
$10.07
PnL
+$3.83
Record
36%
1429-2521 (3950)
0X
0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100Invested
$4.05
Value
$5
PnL
+$0.95
Record
48%
2388-2630 (5018)
DV
dvasdkasodkCTR<$100Invested
$1.2
Value
—
PnL
-$1.2
Record
50%
2651-2645 (5296)
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Market Info
Condition ID
0x144770ff...d1050e
Slug
xrp-updown-5m-1794727500