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UpUpDownUp
MayorMamdani<$100Down
Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.
XRP Up or Down - November 15, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET
Resolved Down. 60% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.
RESOLVED
💀
Lost
Consensus Traders
5
Up 60%
Total Value
$22.56
Combined PnL
$-1.1K
Smart Money Signal
Up
3 of 5 top traders (60%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Market Activity
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Outcome Probabilities
Up0%
Down100%
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Up3 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares1,063
Combined PnL$-1.1K
Down2 traders
Total Value$22.56
Total Shares23
Combined PnL-$0.47
Up — 60%Down — 40%
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SO soswald1CTR | Upavg 50¢ | $550 | — | -$550 | 52% 3660-3421 (7081) |
BY ByteBadger92CTR | Upavg 50¢ | $500 | — | -$499 | 54% 3914-3284 (7198) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Downavg 97.2¢ | $21.7 | $21 | -$0.7 | 62% 4354-2613 (6967) |
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR<$100 | Upavg 23¢ | $3 | — | -$3 | 43% 1909-2581 (4490) |
MayorMamdani<$100 | Downavg 85¢ | $1.33 | $1.56 | +$0.23 | 52% 2876-2608 (5484) |
SO
soswald1CTRInvested
$550
Value
—
PnL
-$550
Record
52%
3660-3421 (7081)
BY
ByteBadger92CTRInvested
$500
Value
—
PnL
-$499
Record
54%
3914-3284 (7198)
DR
drfc4eybh7i8<$100Invested
$21.7
Value
$21
PnL
-$0.7
Record
62%
4354-2613 (6967)
0X
0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR<$100Invested
$3
Value
—
PnL
-$3
Record
43%
1909-2581 (4490)
MayorMamdani<$100Invested
$1.33
Value
$1.56
PnL
+$0.23
Record
52%
2876-2608 (5484)
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Market Info
Condition ID
0x6e6cb3e9...62d1f8
Slug
xrp-updown-5m-1794726600