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Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.
XRP Up or Down - November 15, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET
Resolved Down. 20% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.
RESOLVED
💀
Lost
Consensus Traders
5
Up 20%
Total Value
$517.46
Combined PnL
-$548.01
Smart Money Signal
Up
1 of 5 top traders (20%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Market Activity
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Outcome Probabilities
Up0%
Down100%
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Up1 trader
Total Value$0
Total Shares550
Combined PnL-$550
Down4 traders
Total Value$517.46
Total Shares517
Combined PnL+$1.99
Up — 20%Down — 80%
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SO soswald1CTR | Upavg 50¢ | $550 | — | -$550 | 52% 3660-3421 (7081) |
BY ByteBadger92 | Downavg 50.2¢ | $502.02 | $502.22 | +$0.2 | 54% 3914-3284 (7198) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Downavg 77¢ | $3.95 | $5.13 | +$1.18 | 67% 3707-1852 (5559) |
DV dvasdkasodk<$100 | Downavg 94¢ | $4.75 | $5.05 | +$0.3 | 50% 2651-2645 (5296) |
AS asidjasiodja<$100 | Downavg 94¢ | $4.75 | $5.05 | +$0.3 | 65% 2617-1432 (4049) |
SO
soswald1CTRInvested
$550
Value
—
PnL
-$550
Record
52%
3660-3421 (7081)
BY
ByteBadger92Invested
$502.02
Value
$502.22
PnL
+$0.2
Record
54%
3914-3284 (7198)
AS
asdaefef<$100Invested
$3.95
Value
$5.13
PnL
+$1.18
Record
67%
3707-1852 (5559)
DV
dvasdkasodk<$100Invested
$4.75
Value
$5.05
PnL
+$0.3
Record
50%
2651-2645 (5296)
AS
asidjasiodja<$100Invested
$4.75
Value
$5.05
PnL
+$0.3
Record
65%
2617-1432 (4049)
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Market Info
Condition ID
0x91b7e276...0c90e1
Slug
xrp-updown-5m-1794726000