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Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
XRP Up or Down - November 15, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET
Resolved Down. 60% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
RESOLVED
🏆
Won
Consensus Traders
5
Down 60%
1 arb excluded
Total Value
$557.16
Combined PnL
-$16.37
Smart Money Signal
Down
3 of 5 top traders (60%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Market Activity
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Outcome Probabilities
Up0%
Down100%
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Up2 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares41
Combined PnL-$17.04
Down3 traders
Total Value$62.16
Total Shares62
Combined PnL+$0.67
Up — 40%Down — 60%
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100 | Upavg 50¢ | $503.63 | $495 | -$1.74 | 54% 3871-3256 (7127) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 50¢ | $251.69 | — | -$251.69 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 49.4¢ | $244.53 | $495 | +$249.95 | |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR<$100 | Upavg 32.7¢ | $15.06 | — | -$15.06 | 50% 3424-3398 (6822) |
SO soswald1<$100 | Downavg 72.7¢ | $29.25 | $30 | +$0.75 | 52% 3641-3403 (7044) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Downavg 71.8¢ | $25.04 | $24.16 | -$0.88 | 62% 4316-2591 (6907) |
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100 | Upavg 22¢ | $1.98 | — | -$1.98 | 36% 1423-2510 (3933) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Downavg 90¢ | $7.2 | $8 | +$0.8 | 67% 3669-1840 (5509) |
BY
ByteBadger92ARB<$100Invested
$503.63
Value
$495
PnL
-$1.74
Record
54%
3871-3256 (7127)
Both legs:
Up$251.6950¢-$251.69
Down$244.5349.4¢+$249.95
0X
0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR<$100Invested
$15.06
Value
—
PnL
-$15.06
Record
50%
3424-3398 (6822)
SO
soswald1<$100Invested
$29.25
Value
$30
PnL
+$0.75
Record
52%
3641-3403 (7044)
DR
drfc4eybh7i8<$100Invested
$25.04
Value
$24.16
PnL
-$0.88
Record
62%
4316-2591 (6907)
AN
antsaslykuCTR<$100Invested
$1.98
Value
—
PnL
-$1.98
Record
36%
1423-2510 (3933)
AS
asdaefef<$100Invested
$7.2
Value
$8
PnL
+$0.8
Record
67%
3669-1840 (5509)
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Market Info
Condition ID
0xcacbac09...b4d1fd
Slug
xrp-updown-5m-1794724200