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Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.
XRP Up or Down - November 15, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET
Resolved Down. 67% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.
RESOLVED
💀
Lost
Consensus Traders
6
Up 67%
Total Value
$12
Combined PnL
$-1.1K
Smart Money Signal
Up
4 of 6 top traders (67%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Market Activity
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Outcome Probabilities
Up0%
Down100%
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Up4 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares1,067
Combined PnL$-1.1K
Down2 traders
Total Value$12
Total Shares12
Combined PnL+$2.26
Up — 67%Down — 33%
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SO soswald1CTR | Upavg 50¢ | $550 | — | -$550 | 52% 3621-3392 (7013) |
BY ByteBadger92CTR | Upavg 50¢ | $500 | — | -$500 | 54% 3849-3219 (7068) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR<$100 | Upavg 24.5¢ | $2.94 | — | -$2.94 | 50% 3397-3361 (6758) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Downavg 97¢ | $6.79 | $7 | +$0.21 | 67% 3650-1820 (5470) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Downavg 59¢ | $2.95 | $5 | +$2.05 | 62% 4286-2574 (6860) |
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100 | Upavg 1¢ | $0.05 | — | -$0.05 | 36% 1413-2501 (3914) |
SO
soswald1CTRInvested
$550
Value
—
PnL
-$550
Record
52%
3621-3392 (7013)
BY
ByteBadger92CTRInvested
$500
Value
—
PnL
-$500
Record
54%
3849-3219 (7068)
0X
0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR<$100Invested
$2.94
Value
—
PnL
-$2.94
Record
50%
3397-3361 (6758)
AS
asdaefef<$100Invested
$6.79
Value
$7
PnL
+$0.21
Record
67%
3650-1820 (5470)
DR
drfc4eybh7i8<$100Invested
$2.95
Value
$5
PnL
+$2.05
Record
62%
4286-2574 (6860)
AN
antsaslykuCTR<$100Invested
$0.05
Value
—
PnL
-$0.05
Record
36%
1413-2501 (3914)
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Market Info
Condition ID
0x3ab25e72...2a79c9
Slug
xrp-updown-5m-1794720000