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Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.

XRP Up or Down - November 15, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET

Resolved Up. 30% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.

View on Polymarket
RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

10

Down 30%

Total Value

$567.29

Combined PnL

$-1.0K

Smart Money Signal

Down

3 of 10 top traders (30%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%
Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down3 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares1,095
Combined PnL$-1.0K
Up7 traders
Total Value$567.29
Total Shares567
Combined PnL+$2.67
Down — 30%Up — 70%
SO
soswald1CTR
Down

Invested

$550

Value

—

PnL

-$537.91

Record

52%

3621-3392 (7013)

0X
0x50f7
Up

Invested

$507.5

Value

$508.01

PnL

+$0.51

Record

52%

1470-1346 (2816)

BY
ByteBadger92CTR
Down

Invested

$503.41

Value

—

PnL

-$493.42

Record

54%

3849-3219 (7068)

HO
hoodquant<$100
Up

Invested

$20.83

Value

$21.05

PnL

+$0.21

Record

98%

4086-84 (4170)

DV
dvasdkasodk<$100
Up

Invested

$15.84

Value

$16.01

PnL

+$0.17

Record

50%

2598-2611 (5209)

AS
asidjasiodja<$100
Up

Invested

$5.94

Value

$6.01

PnL

+$0.07

Record

65%

2580-1409 (3989)

0X
0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710<$100
Up

Invested

$5.7

Value

$6

PnL

+$0.3

Record

43%

1879-2519 (4398)

AS
asdaefef<$100
Up

Invested

$4.95

Value

$5.21

PnL

+$0.26

Record

67%

3650-1820 (5470)

DR
drfc4eybh7i8<$100
Up

Invested

$3.85

Value

$5

PnL

+$1.15

Record

62%

4286-2574 (6860)

0X
0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR<$100
Down

Invested

$3.32

Value

—

PnL

-$3.32

Record

50%

3397-3361 (6758)

Chat

Market Info

Condition ID
0x7016c6b0...9b831c
Slug
xrp-updown-5m-1794719700

Traders in this Market

SO

soswald1

CTR

Down — $0

-$537.91
0X

0x50f7

Up — $508.01

+$0.51
BY

ByteBadger92

CTR

Down — $0

-$493.42
HO

hoodquant

Up — $21.05

+$0.21
DV

dvasdkasodk

Up — $16.01

+$0.17
AS

asidjasiodja

Up — $6.01

+$0.07
0X

0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710

Up — $6

+$0.3
AS

asdaefef

Up — $5.21

+$0.26
DR

drfc4eybh7i8

Up — $5

+$1.15
0X

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

CTR

Down — $0

-$3.32
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