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Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.
XRP Up or Down - November 15, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET
Resolved Up. 50% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.
RESOLVED
💀
Lost
Consensus Traders
8
Down 50%
Total Value
$75
Combined PnL
-$538.08
Smart Money Signal
Down
4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Market Activity
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Outcome Probabilities
Up100%
Down0%
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Down4 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares555
Combined PnL-$531.34
Up4 traders
Total Value$75
Total Shares75
Combined PnL-$6.74
Down — 50%Up — 50%
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BY ByteBadger92CTR | Downavg 49.1¢ | $506.71 | — | -$489.14 | 54% 3849-3219 (7068) |
HO hoodquant<$100 | Upavg 99¢ | $33.66 | $34 | +$0.34 | 98% 4086-84 (4170) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Upavg 18¢ | $27.77 | $18 | -$7.31 | 62% 4286-2574 (6860) |
SO soswald1CTR<$100 | Downavg 68.7¢ | $33.05 | — | -$33.05 | 52% 3621-3392 (7013) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Upavg 99¢ | $13.86 | $14 | +$0.14 | 67% 3650-1820 (5470) |
AS asidjasiodja<$100 | Upavg 99¢ | $8.91 | $9 | +$0.09 | 65% 2580-1409 (3989) |
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100 | Downavg 44¢ | $4.18 | — | -$4.18 | 50% 2598-2611 (5209) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR<$100 | Downavg 54¢ | $4.97 | — | -$4.97 | 50% 3397-3361 (6758) |
BY
ByteBadger92CTRInvested
$506.71
Value
—
PnL
-$489.14
Record
54%
3849-3219 (7068)
HO
hoodquant<$100Invested
$33.66
Value
$34
PnL
+$0.34
Record
98%
4086-84 (4170)
DR
drfc4eybh7i8<$100Invested
$27.77
Value
$18
PnL
-$7.31
Record
62%
4286-2574 (6860)
SO
soswald1CTR<$100Invested
$33.05
Value
—
PnL
-$33.05
Record
52%
3621-3392 (7013)
AS
asdaefef<$100Invested
$13.86
Value
$14
PnL
+$0.14
Record
67%
3650-1820 (5470)
AS
asidjasiodja<$100Invested
$8.91
Value
$9
PnL
+$0.09
Record
65%
2580-1409 (3989)
DV
dvasdkasodkCTR<$100Invested
$4.18
Value
—
PnL
-$4.18
Record
50%
2598-2611 (5209)
0X
0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR<$100Invested
$4.97
Value
—
PnL
-$4.97
Record
50%
3397-3361 (6758)
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Market Info
Condition ID
0x8743f896...56831d
Slug
xrp-updown-5m-1794719400