Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
XRP Up or Down - November 15, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET
Resolved Down. 75% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
12
Down 75%
1 arb excluded
$650.51
-$9.76
Smart Money Signal
9 of 12 top traders (75%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100 | Upavg 50.1¢ | $512.72 | $495 | -$1.34 | 54% 3849-3219 (7068) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 49.9¢ | $247.11 | $495 | +$248.55 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 50.1¢ | $250.61 | — | -$249.89 | |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR<$100 | Upavg 29.1¢ | $27.31 | — | -$27.31 | 50% 3397-3361 (6758) |
AN antsaslyku<$100 | Downavg 59.3¢ | $21.37 | $36.02 | +$14.65 | 36% 1413-2501 (3914) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Downavg 95.3¢ | $41.45 | $29.06 | -$10.35 | 62% 4286-2574 (6860) |
 G-Penis-Monster<$100 | Downavg 67¢ | $16.75 | $25 | +$8.25 | 44% 2246-2882 (5128) |
HO hoodquant<$100 | Downavg 99¢ | $9.86 | $9.96 | +$0.1 | 98% 4086-84 (4170) |
DV dvasdkasodk<$100 | Downavg 40.2¢ | $6.93 | $13.36 | +$6.43 | 50% 2598-2611 (5209) |
 BoneOhio<$100 | Downavg 63.5¢ | $11.34 | $17.85 | +$6.51 | 70% 1721-726 (2447) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Downavg 67¢ | $6.51 | $7.1 | +$0.59 | 67% 3650-1820 (5470) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100 | Downavg 58.4¢ | $7.01 | $12 | +$4.99 | 48% 2338-2522 (4860) |
AS asidjasiodja<$100 | Downavg 67¢ | $5.67 | $5.15 | -$0.52 | 65% 2580-1409 (3989) |
 ohioismCTR<$100 | Upavg 11¢ | $1.65 | — | -$1.65 | 47% 2247-2492 (4739) |
SO soswald1CTR<$100 | Upavg 38¢ | $11.45 | — | -$11.45 | 52% 3621-3392 (7013) |
Invested
$512.72
Value
$495
PnL
-$1.34
Record
54%
3849-3219 (7068)
Both legs:
Invested
$27.31
Value
—
PnL
-$27.31
Record
50%
3397-3361 (6758)
Invested
$21.37
Value
$36.02
PnL
+$14.65
Record
36%
1413-2501 (3914)
Invested
$41.45
Value
$29.06
PnL
-$10.35
Record
62%
4286-2574 (6860)
G-Penis-Monster<$100Invested
$16.75
Value
$25
PnL
+$8.25
Record
44%
2246-2882 (5128)
Invested
$9.86
Value
$9.96
PnL
+$0.1
Record
98%
4086-84 (4170)
Invested
$6.93
Value
$13.36
PnL
+$6.43
Record
50%
2598-2611 (5209)
BoneOhio<$100Invested
$11.34
Value
$17.85
PnL
+$6.51
Record
70%
1721-726 (2447)
Invested
$6.51
Value
$7.1
PnL
+$0.59
Record
67%
3650-1820 (5470)
Invested
$7.01
Value
$12
PnL
+$4.99
Record
48%
2338-2522 (4860)
Invested
$5.67
Value
$5.15
PnL
-$0.52
Record
65%
2580-1409 (3989)
ohioismCTR<$100Invested
$1.65
Value
—
PnL
-$1.65
Record
47%
2247-2492 (4739)
Invested
$11.45
Value
—
PnL
-$11.45
Record
52%
3621-3392 (7013)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
ByteBadger92
ARBArbitrage — excluded
0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609
CTRUp — $0
antsaslyku
Down — $36.02
drfc4eybh7i8
Down — $29.06
G-Penis-Monster
Down — $25
hoodquant
Down — $9.96
dvasdkasodk
Down — $13.36
BoneOhio
Down — $17.85
asdaefef
Down — $7.1
0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530
Down — $12