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Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.
XRP Up or Down - November 14, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET
Resolved Down. 50% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.
RESOLVED
💀
Lost
Consensus Traders
6
Up 50%
1 arb excluded
Total Value
$517.41
Combined PnL
-$10.89
Smart Money Signal
Up
3 of 6 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Market Activity
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Outcome Probabilities
Up0%
Down100%
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Up3 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares31
Combined PnL-$11.79
Down3 traders
Total Value$15
Total Shares15
Combined PnL+$0.9
Up — 50%Down — 50%
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100 | Downavg 50.3¢ | $504.86 | $502.42 | -$0.91 | 54% 3849-3219 (7068) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 50.3¢ | $252.8 | $502.42 | +$249.62 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 50¢ | $250.53 | — | -$250.53 | |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR<$100 | Upavg 27¢ | $7.04 | — | -$7.04 | 50% 3397-3361 (6758) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100 | Upavg 46¢ | $4.6 | — | -$4.6 | 47% 2348-2603 (4951) |
SO soswald1<$100 | Downavg 90¢ | $6.05 | $4.94 | -$1.11 | 52% 3621-3392 (7013) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Downavg 90¢ | $4.55 | $5.06 | +$0.51 | 67% 3650-1820 (5470) |
0X 0x50f7CTR<$100 | Upavg 3¢ | $0.15 | — | -$0.15 | 52% 1470-1346 (2816) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Downavg 70¢ | $3.5 | $5 | +$1.5 | 62% 4286-2574 (6860) |
BY
ByteBadger92ARB<$100Invested
$504.86
Value
$502.42
PnL
-$0.91
Record
54%
3849-3219 (7068)
Both legs:
Down$252.850.3¢+$249.62
Up$250.5350¢-$250.53
0X
0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR<$100Invested
$7.04
Value
—
PnL
-$7.04
Record
50%
3397-3361 (6758)
0X
0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100Invested
$4.6
Value
—
PnL
-$4.6
Record
47%
2348-2603 (4951)
SO
soswald1<$100Invested
$6.05
Value
$4.94
PnL
-$1.11
Record
52%
3621-3392 (7013)
AS
asdaefef<$100Invested
$4.55
Value
$5.06
PnL
+$0.51
Record
67%
3650-1820 (5470)
0X
0x50f7CTR<$100Invested
$0.15
Value
—
PnL
-$0.15
Record
52%
1470-1346 (2816)
DR
drfc4eybh7i8<$100Invested
$3.5
Value
$5
PnL
+$1.5
Record
62%
4286-2574 (6860)
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Market Info
Condition ID
0x3b8c0f12...5c3d4e
Slug
xrp-updown-5m-1794718500