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Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.

XRP Up or Down - November 14, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET

Resolved Up. 50% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.

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RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

6

Down 50%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$516.69

Combined PnL

-$2.94

Smart Money Signal

Down

3 of 6 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down3 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares27

Combined PnL-$4.66

Up3 traders

Total Value$16.26

Total Shares16

Combined PnL+$1.72

Down — 50%Up — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100	Upavg 50.1¢	$507.55	$500.43	+$7.69	54% 3808-3199 (7007)
└ Up leg	Upavg 50.1¢	$250.61	$500.43	+$254.31
└ Down leg	Downavg 49.9¢	$245.62	—	-$246.62
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR<$100	Downavg 6.8¢	$1.1	—	-$1.1	50% 3372-3320 (6692)
SO soswald1<$100	Upavg 57¢	$4	$5.26	+$1.26	52% 3603-3367 (6970)
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Upavg 94¢	$5.64	$6	+$0.36	62% 4256-2556 (6812)
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR<$100	Downavg 6¢	$0.36	—	-$0.36	43% 1865-2503 (4368)
AS asdaefef<$100	Upavg 98¢	$4.9	$5	+$0.1	67% 3623-1806 (5429)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100	Downavg 64¢	$3.2	—	-$3.2	48% 2317-2509 (4826)

ByteBadger92ARB<$100

Invested

$507.55

Value

$500.43

PnL

+$7.69

Record

54%

3808-3199 (7007)

Both legs:

Up$250.6150.1¢+$254.31

Down$245.6249.9¢-$246.62

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR<$100

Invested

$1.1

Value

—

PnL

-$1.1

Record

50%

3372-3320 (6692)

Invested

$4

Value

$5.26

PnL

+$1.26

Record

52%

3603-3367 (6970)

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Invested

$5.64

Value

$6

PnL

+$0.36

Record

62%

4256-2556 (6812)

0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR<$100

Invested

$0.36

Value

—

PnL

-$0.36

Record

43%

1865-2503 (4368)

Invested

$4.9

Value

$5

PnL

+$0.1

Record

67%

3623-1806 (5429)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100

Invested

$3.2

Value

—

PnL

-$3.2

Record

48%

2317-2509 (4826)

Smart Money Signal

Down

3 of 6 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x4590587b...8e2ee6

Slug

xrp-updown-5m-1794717900

Traders in this Market

ByteBadger92

Arbitrage — excluded

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Down — $0

soswald1

Up — $5.26

drfc4eybh7i8

Up — $6

0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710

Down — $0

asdaefef

Up — $5

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530

Down — $0

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