Database problems: some data is degraded. We're fixing it right now.

Back to Markets

Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.

XRP Up or Down - November 14, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET

Resolved Up. 8% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

12

Down 8%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$646.65

Combined PnL

-$472.28

Smart Money Signal

Down

1 of 12 top traders (8%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down1 trader

Total Value$0

Total Shares500

Combined PnL-$488.5

Up11 traders

Total Value$126.65

Total Shares127

Combined PnL+$16.22

Down — 8%Up — 92%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SO soswald1ARB<$100	Downavg 50¢	$550	$520	-$12.95	52% 3603-3367 (6970)
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$260	$520	+$262.05
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$275	—	-$275
BY ByteBadger92CTR	Downavg 49.4¢	$502.04	—	-$488.5	54% 3808-3199 (7007)
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609<$100	Upavg 61.3¢	$17.51	$17.43	-$0.08	50% 3372-3320 (6692)
G-Penis-Monster<$100	Upavg 75.8¢	$18.19	$24	+$5.81	44% 2227-2869 (5096)
DV dvasdkasodk<$100	Upavg 89.5¢	$16.43	$14.45	-$1.98	50% 2579-2590 (5169)
BoneOhio<$100	Upavg 74¢	$12.47	$16.85	+$4.38	70% 1711-719 (2430)
AS asdaefef<$100	Upavg 64.5¢	$10.52	$10.24	-$0.28	67% 3623-1806 (5429)
AN antsaslyku<$100	Upavg 74¢	$9.73	$13.15	+$3.42	36% 1409-2482 (3891)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100	Upavg 67¢	$8.76	$13.07	+$4.31	48% 2317-2509 (4826)
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Upavg 80¢	$8.67	$6	-$2.12	62% 4256-2556 (6812)
AS asidjasiodja<$100	Upavg 77¢	$6.3	$5.45	-$0.85	65% 2569-1402 (3971)
ohioism<$100	Upavg 74¢	$3.7	$5	+$1.3	47% 2226-2478 (4704)
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710<$100	Upavg 45¢	$2.7	$1	+$2.3	43% 1865-2503 (4368)

soswald1ARB<$100

Invested

$550

Value

$520

PnL

-$12.95

Record

52%

3603-3367 (6970)

Both legs:

Up$26050¢+$262.05

Down$27550¢-$275

ByteBadger92CTR

Invested

$502.04

Value

—

PnL

-$488.5

Record

54%

3808-3199 (7007)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609<$100

Invested

$17.51

Value

$17.43

PnL

-$0.08

Record

50%

3372-3320 (6692)

G-Penis-Monster<$100

Invested

$18.19

Value

$24

PnL

+$5.81

Record

44%

2227-2869 (5096)

dvasdkasodk<$100

Invested

$16.43

Value

$14.45

PnL

-$1.98

Record

50%

2579-2590 (5169)

Invested

$12.47

Value

$16.85

PnL

+$4.38

Record

70%

1711-719 (2430)

Invested

$10.52

Value

$10.24

PnL

-$0.28

Record

67%

3623-1806 (5429)

antsaslyku<$100

Invested

$9.73

Value

$13.15

PnL

+$3.42

Record

36%

1409-2482 (3891)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100

Invested

$8.76

Value

$13.07

PnL

+$4.31

Record

48%

2317-2509 (4826)

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Invested

$8.67

Value

$6

PnL

-$2.12

Record

62%

4256-2556 (6812)

asidjasiodja<$100

Invested

$6.3

Value

$5.45

PnL

-$0.85

Record

65%

2569-1402 (3971)

Invested

$3.7

Value

$5

PnL

+$1.3

Record

47%

2226-2478 (4704)

0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710<$100

Invested

$2.7

Value

$1

PnL

+$2.3

Record

43%

1865-2503 (4368)

Smart Money Signal

Down

1 of 12 top traders (8%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

Market Info

Condition ID

0x013898fb...cb2b8b

Slug

xrp-updown-5m-1794717000

Traders in this Market

soswald1

Arbitrage — excluded

ByteBadger92

Down — $0

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Up — $17.43

G-Penis-Monster

Up — $24

dvasdkasodk

Up — $14.45

BoneOhio

Up — $16.85

asdaefef

Up — $10.24

antsaslyku

Up — $13.15

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530

Up — $13.07

drfc4eybh7i8

Up — $6

Trade on Polymarket