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Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.

XRP Up or Down - November 14, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET

Resolved Up. 45% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

11

Down 40%

Total Value

$179.85

Combined PnL

-$489

Smart Money Signal

Down

5 of 11 top traders (45%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down5 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares539

Combined PnL-$529.91

Up6 traders

Total Value$179.85

Total Shares180

Combined PnL+$40.91

Down — 45%Up — 55%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BY ByteBadger92CTR	Downavg 50¢	$500	—	-$498.9	54% 3808-3199 (7007)
HO hoodquant<$100	Upavg 99¢	$64.79	$65.44	+$0.65	98% 4049-84 (4133)
DV dvasdkasodk<$100	Upavg 92.7¢	$39.54	$36.25	-$3.29	50% 2579-2590 (5169)
AS asdaefefCTR<$100	Downavg 97.7¢	$19.61	—	-$19.61	67% 3623-1806 (5429)
AN antsaslyku<$100	Upavg 35¢	$11.1	$28.57	+$17.47	36% 1409-2482 (3891)
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Upavg 71.5¢	$17.97	$19.33	+$1.36	62% 4256-2556 (6812)
SO soswald1CTR<$100	Downavg 33.1¢	$9.8	—	-$9.8	52% 3603-3367 (6970)
AS asidjasiodja<$100	Upavg 24¢	$2.79	$11.63	+$8.83	65% 2569-1402 (3971)
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609<$100	Upavg 14.8¢	$2.76	$18.64	+$15.88	50% 3372-3320 (6692)
BO bosonaCTR<$100	Downavg 30¢	$1.54	—	-$1.54	51% 4768-4559 (9327)
MO mo-moneyCTR<$100	Downavg 64¢	$0.06	—	-$0.06	51% 1517-1445 (2962)

ByteBadger92CTR

Invested

$500

Value

—

PnL

-$498.9

Record

54%

3808-3199 (7007)

Invested

$64.79

Value

$65.44

PnL

+$0.65

Record

98%

4049-84 (4133)

dvasdkasodk<$100

Invested

$39.54

Value

$36.25

PnL

-$3.29

Record

50%

2579-2590 (5169)

asdaefefCTR<$100

Invested

$19.61

Value

—

PnL

-$19.61

Record

67%

3623-1806 (5429)

antsaslyku<$100

Invested

$11.1

Value

$28.57

PnL

+$17.47

Record

36%

1409-2482 (3891)

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Invested

$17.97

Value

$19.33

PnL

+$1.36

Record

62%

4256-2556 (6812)

soswald1CTR<$100

Invested

$9.8

Value

—

PnL

-$9.8

Record

52%

3603-3367 (6970)

asidjasiodja<$100

Invested

$2.79

Value

$11.63

PnL

+$8.83

Record

65%

2569-1402 (3971)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609<$100

Invested

$2.76

Value

$18.64

PnL

+$15.88

Record

50%

3372-3320 (6692)

Invested

$1.54

Value

—

PnL

-$1.54

Record

51%

4768-4559 (9327)

mo-moneyCTR<$100

Invested

$0.06

Value

—

PnL

-$0.06

Record

51%

1517-1445 (2962)

Smart Money Signal

Down

5 of 11 top traders (45%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x36feb60b...b6345f

Slug

xrp-updown-5m-1794715800

Traders in this Market

ByteBadger92

Down — $0

hoodquant

Up — $65.44

dvasdkasodk

Up — $36.25

asdaefef

Down — $0

antsaslyku

Up — $28.57

drfc4eybh7i8

Up — $19.33

soswald1

Down — $0

asidjasiodja

Up — $11.63

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Up — $18.64

bosona

Down — $0

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