Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up
XRP Up or Down - November 14, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET
Resolved Up. 86% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
7
Up 83%
1 arb excluded
$558.51
$8.25
Smart Money Signal
6 of 7 top traders (86%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100 | Upavg 49.8¢ | $505.02 | $500.01 | +$9.9 | 54% 3763-3169 (6932) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 49.8¢ | $249.12 | $500.01 | +$255 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 49.2¢ | $246 | — | -$245.1 | |
SO soswald1<$100 | Upavg 48.6¢ | $14.7 | $30.22 | +$15.52 | 52% 3571-3339 (6910) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR<$100 | Downavg 13.3¢ | $11.9 | — | -$11.9 | 51% 3341-3263 (6604) |
DV dvasdkasodk<$100 | Upavg 93.9¢ | $11.46 | $12.21 | +$0.75 | 50% 2549-2566 (5115) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Upavg 90¢ | $4.8 | $5.33 | +$0.53 | 67% 3590-1785 (5375) |
AS asidjasiodja<$100 | Upavg 91¢ | $4.6 | $5.05 | +$0.45 | 65% 2545-1392 (3937) |
 MayorMamdani<$100 | Upavg 43¢ | $2.15 | $5 | +$2.85 | 52% 2809-2555 (5364) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Upavg 94¢ | $0.65 | $0.69 | +$0.04 | 63% 4221-2527 (6748) |
Invested
$505.02
Value
$500.01
PnL
+$9.9
Record
54%
3763-3169 (6932)
Both legs:
Invested
$14.7
Value
$30.22
PnL
+$15.52
Record
52%
3571-3339 (6910)
Invested
$11.9
Value
—
PnL
-$11.9
Record
51%
3341-3263 (6604)
Invested
$11.46
Value
$12.21
PnL
+$0.75
Record
50%
2549-2566 (5115)
Invested
$4.8
Value
$5.33
PnL
+$0.53
Record
67%
3590-1785 (5375)
Invested
$4.6
Value
$5.05
PnL
+$0.45
Record
65%
2545-1392 (3937)
MayorMamdani<$100Invested
$2.15
Value
$5
PnL
+$2.85
Record
52%
2809-2555 (5364)
Invested
$0.65
Value
$0.69
PnL
+$0.04
Record
63%
4221-2527 (6748)