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Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.
XRP Up or Down - November 14, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET
Resolved Down. 60% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.
RESOLVED
💀
Lost
Consensus Traders
5
Up 60%
2 arb excluded
Total Value
$1.1K
Combined PnL
-$7.41
Smart Money Signal
Up
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Market Activity
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Outcome Probabilities
Up0%
Down100%
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Down2 traders
Total Value$35.49
Total Shares35
Combined PnL-$0.86
Up3 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares37
Combined PnL-$6.55
Down — 40%Up — 60%
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SO soswald1ARB<$100 | Downavg 50¢ | $550 | $545 | +$1.9 | 52% 3603-3367 (6970) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 50¢ | $272.5 | $545 | +$274 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 50¢ | $268.5 | — | -$272.1 | |
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100 | Downavg 50.8¢ | $510 | $500 | -$0.46 | 54% 3808-3199 (7007) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 50.8¢ | $253.82 | $500 | +$249.3 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 49.5¢ | $249.06 | — | -$249.76 | |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Downavg 83.9¢ | $31.83 | $30.36 | +$0.34 | 62% 4256-2556 (6812) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Downavg 79¢ | $6.33 | $5.13 | -$1.2 | 67% 3623-1806 (5429) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR<$100 | Upavg 15.1¢ | $2.44 | — | -$2.44 | 50% 3372-3320 (6692) |
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100 | Upavg 19.6¢ | $2.86 | — | -$2.86 | 50% 2579-2590 (5169) |
AS asidjasiodjaCTR<$100 | Upavg 19¢ | $1.25 | — | -$1.25 | 65% 2569-1402 (3971) |
SO
soswald1ARB<$100Invested
$550
Value
$545
PnL
+$1.9
Record
52%
3603-3367 (6970)
Both legs:
Down$272.550¢+$274
Up$268.550¢-$272.1
BY
ByteBadger92ARB<$100Invested
$510
Value
$500
PnL
-$0.46
Record
54%
3808-3199 (7007)
Both legs:
Down$253.8250.8¢+$249.3
Up$249.0649.5¢-$249.76
DR
drfc4eybh7i8<$100Invested
$31.83
Value
$30.36
PnL
+$0.34
Record
62%
4256-2556 (6812)
AS
asdaefef<$100Invested
$6.33
Value
$5.13
PnL
-$1.2
Record
67%
3623-1806 (5429)
0X
0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR<$100Invested
$2.44
Value
—
PnL
-$2.44
Record
50%
3372-3320 (6692)
DV
dvasdkasodkCTR<$100Invested
$2.86
Value
—
PnL
-$2.86
Record
50%
2579-2590 (5169)
AS
asidjasiodjaCTR<$100Invested
$1.25
Value
—
PnL
-$1.25
Record
65%
2569-1402 (3971)
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Market Info
Condition ID
0x855b7c9d...196264
Slug
xrp-updown-5m-1794714600