Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
XRP Up or Down - November 14, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET
Resolved Down. 70% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
10
Down 70%
1 arb excluded
$715.18
$18.16
Smart Money Signal
7 of 10 top traders (70%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100 | Downavg 50.6¢ | $521.14 | $500 | -$6.45 | 54% 3763-3169 (6932) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 50.1¢ | $250.55 | — | -$253.45 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 50.6¢ | $253 | $500 | +$247 | |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609<$100 | Downavg 37.1¢ | $55.43 | $80.65 | +$25.21 | 51% 3341-3263 (6604) |
SO soswald1<$100 | Downavg 59.5¢ | $58.02 | $64.1 | +$10.51 | 52% 3571-3339 (6910) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Downavg 97.7¢ | $20.33 | $18 | -$2.33 | 67% 3590-1785 (5375) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Downavg 48.1¢ | $27.93 | $22.2 | +$3.66 | 63% 4221-2527 (6748) |
AS asidjasiodja<$100 | Downavg 99¢ | $7.92 | $8 | +$0.08 | 65% 2545-1392 (3937) |
PB PBot-5CTR<$100 | Upavg 45¢ | $6.75 | — | -$6.75 | 49% 1355-1438 (2793) |
 ohioism<$100 | Downavg 33¢ | $4.95 | $15 | +$10.05 | 47% 2198-2452 (4650) |
DV dvasdkasodk<$100 | Downavg 30¢ | $2.17 | $7.23 | +$5.06 | 50% 2549-2566 (5115) |
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100 | Upavg 45.6¢ | $19.13 | — | -$19.13 | 37% 1405-2441 (3846) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100 | Upavg 32.8¢ | $8.2 | — | -$8.2 | 47% 2305-2557 (4862) |
Invested
$521.14
Value
$500
PnL
-$6.45
Record
54%
3763-3169 (6932)
Both legs:
Invested
$55.43
Value
$80.65
PnL
+$25.21
Record
51%
3341-3263 (6604)
Invested
$58.02
Value
$64.1
PnL
+$10.51
Record
52%
3571-3339 (6910)
Invested
$20.33
Value
$18
PnL
-$2.33
Record
67%
3590-1785 (5375)
Invested
$27.93
Value
$22.2
PnL
+$3.66
Record
63%
4221-2527 (6748)
Invested
$7.92
Value
$8
PnL
+$0.08
Record
65%
2545-1392 (3937)
Invested
$6.75
Value
—
PnL
-$6.75
Record
49%
1355-1438 (2793)
ohioism<$100Invested
$4.95
Value
$15
PnL
+$10.05
Record
47%
2198-2452 (4650)
Invested
$2.17
Value
$7.23
PnL
+$5.06
Record
50%
2549-2566 (5115)
Invested
$19.13
Value
—
PnL
-$19.13
Record
37%
1405-2441 (3846)
Invested
$8.2
Value
—
PnL
-$8.2
Record
47%
2305-2557 (4862)
Chat
Market Info
Traders in this Market
ByteBadger92
ARBArbitrage — excluded
0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609
Down — $80.65
soswald1
Down — $64.1
asdaefef
Down — $18
drfc4eybh7i8
Down — $22.2
asidjasiodja
Down — $8
PBot-5
CTRUp — $0
ohioism
Down — $15
dvasdkasodk
Down — $7.23
antsaslyku
CTRUp — $0