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Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.

XRP Up or Down - November 14, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET

Resolved Up. 55% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.

View on Polymarket
RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

11

Down 55%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$573.31

Combined PnL

-$523.3

Smart Money Signal

Down

6 of 11 top traders (55%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%
Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down6 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares581
Combined PnL-$542.09
Up5 traders
Total Value$76.31
Total Shares76
Combined PnL+$18.8
Down — 55%Up — 45%
SO
soswald1CTR
Down

Invested

$553.45

Value

—

PnL

-$525.74

Record

52%

3555-3314 (6869)

BY
ByteBadger92ARB<$100
Down

Invested

$502.4

Value

$497

PnL

+$5.65

Record

54%

3731-3151 (6882)

Both legs:

Up$245.9749.5¢+$253.25
Down$248.4250¢-$247.6
DR
drfc4eybh7i8<$100
Up

Invested

$35.65

Value

$28.3

PnL

-$5.89

Record

63%

4195-2511 (6706)

0X
0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100
Up

Invested

$9.47

Value

$18

PnL

+$8.53

Record

48%

2261-2474 (4735)

AN
antsaslykuCTR<$100
Down

Invested

$10

Value

—

PnL

-$10

Record

37%

1401-2422 (3823)

PB
PBot-5<$100
Up

Invested

$4.55

Value

$13

PnL

+$8.45

Record

48%

1343-1431 (2774)

ohioism<$100
Up

Invested

$5.45

Value

$15

PnL

+$9.55

Record

47%

2185-2435 (4620)

AS
asdaefef<$100
Up

Invested

$3.85

Value

$2.01

PnL

-$1.84

Record

67%

3569-1770 (5339)

DV
dvasdkasodkCTR<$100
Down

Invested

$2.16

Value

—

PnL

-$2.16

Record

50%

2527-2554 (5081)

G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100
Down

Invested

$1.8

Value

—

PnL

-$1.8

Record

44%

2183-2822 (5005)

0X
0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR<$100
Down

Invested

$1.62

Value

—

PnL

-$1.62

Record

51%

3321-3240 (6561)

0X
0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100
Down

Invested

$0.77

Value

—

PnL

-$0.77

Record

47%

2283-2545 (4828)

Chat

Market Info

Condition ID
0xb9a014e1...add1d0
Slug
xrp-updown-5m-1794709500

Traders in this Market

SO

soswald1

CTR

Down — $0

-$525.74
BY

ByteBadger92

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

+$5.65
DR

drfc4eybh7i8

Up — $28.3

-$5.89
0X

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530

Up — $18

+$8.53
AN

antsaslyku

CTR

Down — $0

-$10
PB

PBot-5

Up — $13

+$8.45

ohioism

Up — $15

+$9.55
AS

asdaefef

Up — $2.01

-$1.84
DV

dvasdkasodk

CTR

Down — $0

-$2.16

G-Penis-Monster

CTR

Down — $0

-$1.8
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