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Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.

XRP Up or Down - November 14, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET

Resolved Down. 56% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.

View on Polymarket
RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

9

Up 56%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$546.89

Combined PnL

-$539.55

Smart Money Signal

Up

5 of 9 top traders (56%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%
Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up5 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares565
Combined PnL-$543.63
Down4 traders
Total Value$48.98
Total Shares49
Combined PnL+$4.08
Up — 56%Down — 44%
SO
soswald1CTR
Up

Invested

$550

Value

—

PnL

-$534.05

Record

52%

3555-3314 (6869)

BY
ByteBadger92ARB<$100
Up

Invested

$505.93

Value

$497.91

PnL

+$5.34

Record

54%

3731-3151 (6882)

Both legs:

Up$249.0249.8¢-$246.6
Down$246.9749.6¢+$251.94
DV
dvasdkasodk<$100
Down

Invested

$30.63

Value

$27

PnL

-$3.63

Record

50%

2527-2554 (5081)

DR
drfc4eybh7i8<$100
Down

Invested

$3.4

Value

$11

PnL

+$7.6

Record

63%

4195-2511 (6706)

AS
asidjasiodja<$100
Down

Invested

$6.93

Value

$7

PnL

+$0.07

Record

65%

2523-1384 (3907)

0X
0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR<$100
Up

Invested

$6.81

Value

—

PnL

-$6.81

Record

51%

3321-3240 (6561)

AS
asdaefef<$100
Down

Invested

$3.94

Value

$3.98

PnL

+$0.04

Record

67%

3569-1770 (5339)

0X
0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100
Up

Invested

$2

Value

—

PnL

-$2

Record

48%

2261-2474 (4735)

G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100
Up

Invested

$0.72

Value

—

PnL

-$0.72

Record

44%

2183-2822 (5005)

AN
antsaslykuCTR<$100
Up

Invested

$0.05

Value

—

PnL

-$0.05

Record

37%

1401-2422 (3823)

Chat

Market Info

Condition ID
0xcf0eee88...76c664
Slug
xrp-updown-5m-1794709200

Traders in this Market

SO

soswald1

CTR

Up — $0

-$534.05
BY

ByteBadger92

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

+$5.34
DV

dvasdkasodk

Down — $27

-$3.63
DR

drfc4eybh7i8

Down — $11

+$7.6
AS

asidjasiodja

Down — $7

+$0.07
0X

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

CTR

Up — $0

-$6.81
AS

asdaefef

Down — $3.98

+$0.04
0X

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530

CTR

Up — $0

-$2

G-Penis-Monster

CTR

Up — $0

-$0.72
AN

antsaslyku

CTR

Up — $0

-$0.05
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